Travel industry stakeholders have warned that the consolidation of US visa-processing services across Africa could choke outbound travel demand in the coming months, ultimately impacting passenger numbers on SA-US flights.
On August 1, the US Department of State consolidated visa processing across the continent into 20 designated regional hubs. While the US consulates in Johannesburg and Cape Town remain fully operational, they must now absorb visa applications previously handled by the Durban consulate, as well as consulates in Antananarivo (Madagascar), Gaborone (Botswana), Harare (Zimbabwe), Maputo (Mozambique), Maseru (Lesotho), Mbabane (Eswatini) and Windhoek (Namibia).
The additional regional demand on to Johannesburg and Cape Town risks creating severe administrative constraints, longer interview wait times and visa processing delays for South African travellers.
US-SA traffic grows
Passenger traffic between South Africa and the US is above pre-pandemic levels, with airline data showing strong passenger numbers and load factors.
According to the US Department of Transport data, provided by AirInsights Data Library, the number of passengers flying directly on US carriers between the two countries grew from 206 055 in 2019 to 264 018 last year, representing a 28% increase in total passenger numbers.
In June, Delta reported that its US-SA route’s passenger load factor had reached between 80% and 90%, with the airline’s executives calling for increased capacity on the route.
SA demand threatened
Industry analysts expect inbound traffic to remain resilient but highlighted growing risks for local outbound sales.
Addison Schonland, Founder of AirInsights, noted that Delta’s South Africa flights remain near capacity year-round, adding that the carrier could consider deploying its larger A350-1000 on the route upon delivery next year to meet demand.
Travel News could not confirm South Africa’s outbound passenger numbers to the US by the time of publishing.
Schonland said the visa-processing consulate consolidation in the region could see South Africa’s outbound demand for the US decrease.
“The only traffic reduction the route may experience may be on outbound traffic from SA to the US. Other than the visa consulate consolidation, the US visa requirements are becoming increasingly restrictive and it is an expensive destination for South Africans,” he added.
