How is the American economy really doing? Listening to President Trump, everything is going perfectly and the path toward the new "golden age" of the USA is essentially clear. However, data and facts show that this assessment is extreme and lacks balance. Alongside enduring strengths, the United States also has some problems that cannot be classified as secondary. Lights and shadows overseas overlap heavily at this stage; the former must naturally be acknowledged, but the latter cannot be erased with a stroke of a pen or with flashy declarations.
What remains the world's largest economic engine still has good growth compared to developed areas, but it is not exempt from a certain slowdown. Geopolitical tensions, wars, US tariffs, and trade disputes are felt everywhere, albeit in different amounts, including in the United States. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the US should grow by 2% this year and 1.8% next year; in 2024 growth was 2.8% and in 2025 it was 2.1%. In Bern, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) is a bit more optimistic about the US, but also sees the slowdown emerging: 2.2% in 2026 and 2% in 2027. On one hand, it is true that American growth remains higher than the European average; on the other hand, it is equally true that US GDP is also losing speed.
A delicate point, more for the US than for others, is inflation. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), and other major central banks aim for an average annual inflation rate of 2%. The Swiss National Bank (SNB), for its part, targets a range of 0-2%. In May, US inflation stood at 4.2%; certainly not a low level, which embarrassed the Fed, which at its last meeting could in theory have raised rates to combat this increase, but in reality did not move, both to avoid slowing economic growth and probably to avoid a collision course with President Trump, who has long demanded not only no increase but a rate cut. The ECB, on the other hand, raised its rates (lower than US rates), with Eurozone inflation at 3.2% in May. The SNB did not move, but it has the advantage of a reference rate that is already at zero and still low inflation, at 0.6% in May.
The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on the rest of the world have partially been rolled back after a contrary decision by the US Supreme Court, but they have not entirely disappeared, and Washington is trying to impose others. This pushes prices up in the US. Furthermore, increases in oil, gas, and other commodities—occurring with the US-Israel war against Iran and the blockades of the Strait of Hormuz—have been felt in many parts of the globe, including the United States. On the bright side, it is true that regarding unemployment, the US has so far managed to maintain a rate that is quite low for them (4.3% from March to May of this year). But, returning to the shadows, there is the high public debt; the ratio of public debt to GDP is now around 125%, a percentage that places the United States among the most indebted developed countries. According to some analysts, this debt issue is also behind the tendentially low level of the US dollar and behind some doubts among a slice of investors about the future performance of American government securities.
