247 — The relationship between the United States and India, long hailed as one of the defining strategic partnerships of the 21st century, is going through a period of increasing strain. Trade tariffs, disagreements over Iran, Washington's rapprochement with Pakistan, and doubts about the sharing of military technology are leading New Delhi to recalibrate its foreign policy and seek a greater balance among major powers.
This assessment was published by the Chinese newspaper Global Times in an opinion article signed by the director of the Research Department of the Institute of National Strategy at Tsinghua University. According to the article, the start of the second term of current US President Donald Trump accelerated the cooling of a relationship that, despite its appearance of stability, had already accumulated structural divergences.
For decades, governments and analysts from both countries classified the ties between Washington and New Delhi as a "defining partnership of the 21st century." The expectation was that economic, military, and technological cooperation would turn the two countries into a central force in the reorganization of the global geopolitical landscape.
The article argues, however, that the image of an "unbreakable" alliance is being replaced by an atmosphere of mistrust. The Trump administration has adopted trade and diplomatic measures that directly affect interests considered strategic by India.
US tariffs hit Indian exports
One of the main points of friction is the imposition of punitive tariffs on Indian products. According to the analysis, US protectionist measures have caused losses for important sectors of the Indian economy and demonstrated that Washington prioritizes its own trade objectives, even when that harms a strategic partner.
The text states that US foreign policy has begun to treat bilateral relations in an essentially transactional manner. In this logic, India is seen less as an equal partner and more as an instrument for promoting US interests.
Even if the two governments reach agreements to reduce some tariffs, the assessment is that New Delhi may be pressured to accept conditions considered excessive. This tends to fuel the internal Indian debate about the risks of economic and strategic dependence on Washington.
Iran and the Strait of Hormuz widen divergences
Donald Trump's policies on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz also appear as a central source of tension. India heavily depends on energy imports and watches with concern any escalation that causes oil price increases and instability in sea routes.
According to the article, Washington's tougher stance on Tehran has raised energy costs for the Indian economy. The text also mentions the attack on the Iranian frigate IRIS Dana and aggressions against Indian merchant ships as episodes that have affected New Delhi's image as a security provider in the Indian Ocean.
The analysis argues that Trump ignored fundamental Indian interests in handling the Iranian crisis. For New Delhi, navigational security in the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf is a strategic issue, both for energy supply and for the country's international projection.
US rapprochement with Pakistan bothers New Delhi
Another factor that contributed to the strain was the US decision to strengthen ties with Pakistan without prioritizing Indian concerns. India and Pakistan have a historic rivalry, with territorial disputes and frequent military tensions.
Washington's move is seen by Indian sectors as a breach of trust built over the past decades. The Global Times article describes this rapprochement as a demonstration that strategic alliances can be relativized when US immediate interests change.
For the author, the situation shows that Washington can use or abandon partners according to its geopolitical needs. This perception is leading members of the Indian government to revise expectations about the degree of US commitment to India's international rise.
Military and technological cooperation likely to continue
Despite the increase in divergences, a complete rupture between the two countries is considered unlikely. The US and India have built, over the last two decades, a broad structure of cooperation in defense, security, technology, and intelligence.
Joint military projects, arms purchases, naval exercises, and technological cooperation mechanisms have reached a level that would hardly be dismantled immediately. Washington also considers India an important piece in its strategy for the Indo-Pacific region.
Still, the article raises doubts about the future of this cooperation. The erosion of trust could reduce the pace of new projects, increase the demands imposed by the US for the transfer of sensitive technologies, and hinder India's plans to modernize its defense industry.
New Delhi seeks to use the purchase of foreign equipment as an instrument to develop its own productive capacity. If Washington imposes additional restrictions, India could expand military and technological partnerships with other countries.
India expands dialogue with China and other partners
Faced with uncertainty in relations with the US, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government is accelerating the diversification of its foreign policy. One of the initiatives mentioned by Global Times is the attempt to improve the economic, trade, and political environment with China.
India and China maintain territorial disputes and a relationship marked by strategic competition. However, the assessment is that New Delhi has shown greater willingness to stabilize bilateral ties and reduce the risks associated with the unpredictability of US foreign policy.
Modi has also intensified contacts with countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the South Pacific region, and Europe. The strategy seeks to expand India's diplomatic options and prevent the country from becoming overly dependent on decisions made by Washington.
This movement represents a return to the principle of strategic autonomy, historically present in Indian diplomacy. During the Cold War, India was one of the main leaders of the Non-Aligned Movement and sought to maintain room for maneuver between international powers.
Strategic autonomy gains strength in New Delhi
The article argues that India should draw a lesson from the fluctuations in its relationship with the US. Betting national development on the support of a single power can reduce independent decision-making capacity and subordinate domestic interests to the priorities of an external partner.
According to the analysis, the foreign policy that best serves India's long-term interests should not be based on dependence on any country. New Delhi needs to maintain simultaneous relations with the US, China, Russia, Europe, and other centers of power.
The pursuit of strategic autonomy does not necessarily mean a distancing from Washington. The goal would be to preserve cooperation in areas of common interest, without abandoning economic, military, and diplomatic ties with other partners.
In an international scenario marked by trade wars, regional conflicts, and technological competition, India is trying to expand its freedom of action. The deterioration of trust with the US thus reinforces a foreign policy based on pragmatism, diversification of alliances, and defense of national interests.
