Voters 74% Blame Tariffs and Iran War for Rising Cost of Living; Trump Administration May Strengthen Tariffs, Potentially Frustrating Voters; 60% Believe U.S. Should Lead the World; Ukraine War and Russia Policy Unlikely to Change Even if Democrats Win; President Holds Powerful Veto Authority
Ahead of the midterm elections on the 3rd of next month, U.S. voters are citing rising prices and the burden of living costs as their top priority. While foreign policy itself may seem to have been pushed down the priority list, the Trump administration's war in Iran and broad tariff policies have been recognized as direct causes of the rise in perceived inflation, causing foreign policy to emerge as a key variable with a decisive impact on voter sentiment.
According to assessments by think tanks and experts, this election goes beyond the traditional formula of "It's the economy, stupid." Foreign and trade policies, such as the Iran war and high tariffs, are directly linked to the actual cost of living for voters, putting pressure on the Trump administration. Taking advantage of this, the Democratic Party is hoping to secure a majority in both the House and the Senate.
U.S. Voters: Rising Cost of Living is Due to Tariffs and the Iran War
The most significant feature of this election is that foreign policy issues have directly hit the public's livelihood. In a survey of 4,150 registered U.S. voters conducted by the Cato Institute last September, 74% responded that President Trump's imposition of tariffs has raised the prices of goods they purchase, and 49% said their quality of life has deteriorated. Notably, 57% of voters view tariffs as equivalent to collecting additional taxes. In a survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs (CCGA) this month, 86% of voters responded that the Iran war is a direct cause of rising prices for oil, groceries, and fertilizer. With diesel prices exceeding $6 per gallon (3.8L), logistics cost burdens are expected to increase ahead of the year-end peak season.
Nevertheless, the Trump administration is strengthening tariff impositions on trading partners, including the European Union (EU), through "Super 301." There is a possibility that Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, related to national security, could be applied to semiconductors, critical minerals, aircraft, and related parts in the future. Furthermore, the administration is showing signs of strengthening tariff measures by preparing retaliatory tariff cards against the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
Regarding trade, the British think tank Chatham House predicted that although U.S. voters are highly dissatisfied with the increased cost of living caused by tariffs and the Iran war, even if the Democratic Party wins the election and takes control of Congress, it will take a long time to repeal bills or launch investigations, meaning consumer-perceived inflation will not be lowered immediately. Therefore, voters may feel that their votes do not lead to real policy changes, potentially leading to greater frustration. Chatham House analyzes that this is highly likely to act as a radical variable for the 2028 presidential election landscape rather than this midterm election.
Voters Evaluate China and Russia Diplomacy Positively; Ukraine Policy Expected to Remain Unchanged
As President Trump's pledged stance of "no new wars" has been broken and military intervention in the Middle East has become prolonged, even Republican supporters are turning their backs, with 76% giving a negative assessment in the Chicago Council on Global Affairs survey. Perceptions of support for Israel have also shifted, with 56% responding that military aid should be reduced or stopped. In particular, young voters supporting the Democratic Party indicated that the Gaza war was the catalyst that made them actively participate in the election.
While the Iran war is expected to maintain a hardline stance, including additional troop deployments after the election, it seems difficult to stop it even with the passage of the War Powers Act in Congress. This is because the president holds veto power and executive enforcement authority. Although Congress can threaten to reject requests for increased defense spending or cut budgets, there has never been a case where war budgets were completely blocked in practice.
Voters are evaluating the Trump administration's diplomacy toward China and Russia positively. Joshua Shifrinson, a professor of public policy at the University of Maryland, explained in a recent interview with The Christian Science Monitor that a majority of voters see President Trump's China policy as less confrontational compared to the previous Joe Biden administration and support a more cooperative approach. Shifrinson noted that U.S. voters view relations with China and Russia as relatively stable and positive, and that this perspective could be a variable in choosing a candidate on election day.
Regardless of the midterm election results, President Trump's passive support for Ukraine and his policy toward Russia are unlikely to change. Kurt Volker, who served as the U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations during the first Trump administration, predicted that while the Democratic Party is likely to become the majority in both houses in this midterm election and will attempt to increase aid to Ukraine, President Trump will exercise his veto power, resulting in no change. Therefore, Trump's perspective and policy stance on Ukraine are highly likely to be maintained after the election.
This midterm election could be a historical test bed showing that failures in foreign and trade policy can immediately become the fuse for judging the domestic administration. However, regardless of the election results, the U.S. trend of foreign isolationism and trade pressure is expected to continue, and the battle for budget and legislative leadership between the administration and Congress is expected to intensify further.
