What Trump's next move could mean for Iran and its neighbours
The United States has unleashed its biggest rounds of strikes on Iran in weeks.
The US has said it struck about 140 Iranian military sites – which prompted Tehran to attack allies in the region, including Kuwait, Oman, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.
Waikato University international law professor Alexander Gillespie told The Front Page that there is a clear legal distinction between US and Iranian actions.
“Iran, which is trying to further this conflict and deepen it, is striking civilian targets like merchant vessels or oil tankers in the Gulf, and these are neutral, and they should not be targeted at all.
“So there is a difference between the targeting practices of the two countries right now. It’s possible, however, that as it escalates, Trump may decide to do a number of things, including expanding his target list to what we know as dual-use facilities, such as power or water. Then it would become questionable,” he said.
Iran has claimed it has closed the Strait of Hormuz, while the US says it’s still open. Gillespie said that, legally, it’s open but remains a highly dangerous route.
“Anyone would be free to go through it, but there’s a very good chance that you may be targeted by an Iranian missile if you do so.
“And so in theory, yes, maybe it’s open, but in reality the risk of trying to transit it would be exceptionally high, and I think any mariner who tried it right now would be at great risk to themselves and their vessel,” he said.
Iran seems to be deliberately provoking the US to escalate further, and that escalation may involve pushing US-aligned regional allies to take a larger military role.
“I think Trump’s goal would be to try to create a new type of alliance, because at the moment they’re ad hoc and fragmented, and they have different points of view.
“But I imagine that trying to get them galvanised so that they could carry the weight together and continue a much longer war against Iran will be Trump’s goal, because he doesn’t want American troops in there,” Gillespie said.
Listen to the full episode to hear more about:
- Long-term consequences
- Iran’s strategy
- The risk of a wider war
- Implications for New Zealand.
