In Rome, ahead of a meeting of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Committee on Fisheries, a report was released stating that by 2040, up to 46% of the global catch of wild fish could be directed to aquaculture feed production. Such a scenario is possible if the farming of predatory species, including salmon and shrimp, expands predominantly.
The report by the UK non-governmental organization Changing Markets Foundation, prepared jointly with researchers from the University of British Columbia, analyzes the potential consequences of aquaculture growth. Mongabay reports on it.
Three development scenarios
Currently, about 20% of wild fish caught worldwide is processed into fishmeal and fish oil. About two-thirds of these products are used in fish farm feed.
Under a scenario in which aquaculture growth is focused on species that require almost no fish-based feed, such as carp or mollusks, 13–17% of the global catch could go to feed. If the industry grows in line with current trends, with a larger share of shrimp, salmon, gilthead seabream and European seabass, the figure would be 29–38%.
More current news is available on the UA.News Telegram channel Telegram.
Under a third, market-oriented scenario, in which the focus shifts even further toward predatory species, demand for wild fish for feed production would reach 34–46% of the entire global catch.
FAO position
The study assesses the potential consequences of achieving the benchmark of increasing sustainable global aquaculture by at least 75% by 2040 compared with 2020, as stated in the FAO's 2023 roadmap.
FAO Assistant Director-General and Director of the Fisheries and Aquaculture Division Manuel Barange said that this figure is not an organizational target or proposal, but merely a discussion of possible options. According to him, the FAO's actual target, set out in the 2022 Blue Transformation roadmap, calls for sustainable aquaculture to grow by 35% by 2030 compared with 2020 levels.
Barange also noted that the sector had already grown by 17% between 2020 and 2024. The FAO has not assessed how meeting the 2030 target would affect the use of marine ingredients in feed, but the official suggested that their volume would not increase during this period due to more efficient and alternative ingredients.
