Yemen's Houthis are not fighting Iran's war; they are pursuing their own conflict with Saudi Arabia, seeking control of Yemen's Red Sea coast while attempting to avoid direct U.S. involvement. Their demands, unchanged since rejecting a 2023 UN roadmap, include an end to Saudi military operations, removal of restrictions on Houthi-controlled ports, back pay for officials, and war reparations.
Iran is confirmed to be directing the offensive against Mocha and the Hanish Islands, providing arms and guidance through IRGC Quds Force commander Abdolreza Shahlai. The Houthis' level of involvement in assisting Iran's objectives will be determined by the Houthis themselves.
Last weekend, U.S. officials met with Houthi representatives in Muscat, Oman, following the group's seizure of Yemen's Red Sea coastline. The Houthi delegation reportedly assured American officials they would not target U.S. vessels and remain committed to the May 2025 ceasefire deal with Washington. They also allegedly pledged not to target Israeli or other commercial ships, sparing all except Saudi vessels, despite the original connection to Gaza.
The Houthis are signaling to Washington that only Saudi Arabia is a target, aiming to insulate their bilateral war with Riyadh from broader escalation. While this might suggest a potential de-escalation of the Red Sea blockade through concessions, significant challenges remain. The 2023 Houthi demands are still negotiable, and the Saudis had previously agreed to similar terms. However, the conflict has evolved, and Bab el-Mandeb is now a different kind of asset in 2026. Intelligence suggests the IRGC is involved in designing a Houthi-enforced toll system for Bab el-Mandeb, similar to Iran's system for Hormuz, a claim the Houthis deny.
Damage Assessment:
On September 8, Houthi missiles and drones struck oil facilities and utilities in four southern Saudi cities (Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan, and Najran), causing fires, wounding 73 people, and temporarily halting operations at some sites. The Saudi Energy Ministry confirmed these events.
The East-West pipeline damage on September 10-11, which impacted oil markets, originated from drones launched out of Iraq by an Iran-backed militia, not the Houthis. A drone targeting Mecca on September 16 was intercepted by Saudi Arabia before entering restricted airspace; the Houthis deny targeting Mecca, and Iran suggested a false flag operation. No independent evidence supports either claim, and no damage occurred.
Separate Houthi claims of strikes on Yanbu's export terminal and the Khamis Mushait airbase remain unsubstantiated by Saudi Arabia.
The Houthis lack the range and precision to strike facilities like Abqaiq, which is over 1,000 kilometers away. The 2019 strike on Abqaiq involved a long-range, precision-guided Iranian weapon. A similar strike today would require an Iranian-grade system, exposing the conflict as Iranian rather than solely Houthi-Saudi.
Situation in Yemen:
The Houthis have gained territory, including Mocha, Perim Island, and approaches to Bab al-Mandeb, without drawing the U.S. into the war. The Houthi administration controls Sanaa, and while there is some unrest due to fuel prices, the public lacks a significant voice. The Houthi-controlled currency is more stable than that of the internationally recognized government, due to direct control over exchange mechanisms.
The Yemeni government has lost coastal control, with its forces retreating from Mocha to regroup in Marib, experiencing low morale. The fighting has displaced nearly 1,800 families in the first 48 hours of the Mocha offensive, with the conflict spreading to four additional provinces.
The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist force, has re-emerged amidst the chaos. STC forces have besieged Saudi Arabia's defense minister and blocked retreating government troops from entering Aden and Lahij after Mocha's fall, though these reports are unconfirmed. This adds another layer of complexity to the volatile situation.
Impact on Fuel Prices:
Gasoline prices have risen nationally from $4.31 to $4.43 in four days, and diesel prices increased by 42 cents. This surge is attributed to reduced Saudi exports, which fell to their lowest level in over a decade last month due to compromised shipping routes. Saudi crude is now rerouted via Suez to the Mediterranean or around Africa to reach Asian buyers.
House Speaker Mike Johnson postponed a vote on suspending the federal gas tax, citing internal disagreements. Trump stated that high prices are a small price to pay for the war against Iran. JPMorgan commodities strategist Natasha Kaneva noted uncertainty in modeling the conflict's endgame.
Midterm election polling indicates a potential Democratic majority in the House, with Democrats needing to flip only four net seats. Historically, the incumbent party's party rarely gains seats in midterm elections.
The situation in Yemen, while potentially a sideshow, is compounding difficulties for the Trump administration. The Houthis' limited desire to draw the U.S. into conflict and the unconfirmed nature of some attacks contribute to the muddled situation. Americans and the global community are bearing the cost of this escalating instability.
