Institutional Outlook: Technology rally may continue; Mid-year report clues mainly in three areas
Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.46% this week, Shenzhen Component Index rose 7.13%, ChiNext rose 11.02%, and the STAR Composite Index rose 13.24%. What is the outlook for A-shares? Let's see what institutions say:
① China Galaxy Securities: Focus on "technology rotation + defensive allocation" strategy
China Galaxy Securities believes that, from an external environment perspective, although the Fed's June dot plot was hawkish and the risk of a rate hike this year was repriced by the market, the temporary easing of US-Iran relations, with both sides reaching a memorandum of understanding to end the conflict, provides a respite for global geopolitical pressures. However, the volatility of external risks still needs attention. On the domestic policy front, the Lujiazui Financial Forum clarified the policy direction of capital markets serving the real economy and focusing on supporting "hard technology." The policy line is tilted toward hard technology, long-term capital, and institutional opening, benefiting the hard technology theme, while improving market liquidity and the valuation system through product and capital-side reforms, consolidating the foundation for long-term healthy market operations.
China Galaxy Securities stated that it focuses on a "technology rotation + defensive allocation" strategy. Focus first: The technology boom and industrial trend remain unchanged. This round of technology rally has industrial trend drivers and performance support logic, and sub-sectors with performance support may continue to benefit. Short-term rotation characteristics may appear, with attention to semiconductors, other electronics, commercial aerospace, communication equipment, computing power, storage, humanoid robots, energy storage, and other sub-directions. Focus second: Sectors benefiting from product price increases and performance recovery logic, with a focus on basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals (minor metals), building materials, steel, etc. Focus third: Pay attention to the allocation value of defensive bottom positions, involving coal, coal chemicals, finance (banks), public utilities, new energy, etc.
② CITIC Securities: This year's AI-driven rally is not an internet bubble rally; rate hikes are unlikely to affect the valuation of "AI-like cyclical stocks"
CITIC Securities believes that this year's AI-driven rally is a "bottleneck trade" driven by huge infrastructure investment, not an internet bubble rally. Rate hikes are unlikely to affect the valuation of "AI-like cyclical stocks" unless rate hikes truly affect AI's end demand, commercialization assumptions, and capital expenditure growth. The global rate hike process first affects sectors with relatively weak demand growth, and the K-shaped divergence between AI and non-AI is true globally. However, due to the return of the strong dollar narrative and the market's overall structure of stock fund reallocation, A-share non-AI cyclical sectors are significantly weaker than their overseas counterparts. Similarly, in the K-shaped divergence, the breadth of A-share market is relatively insufficient compared to overseas. To change the weakness of non-AI sectors, their own narrative needs some positive changes in the future, or changes in the capital side, rather than waiting for an AI correction.
③ Zhongtai Securities: Technology rally may continue
Zhongtai Securities believes that market style divergence may continue in the coming week, with technology remaining the main theme and value style unlikely to reverse in the short term. The hot spots within technology may continue to rotate and spread. Focus on three directions: First, AI direction: focus on storage, overseas computing power, and robots. Second, power equipment and new energy: under the trend of energy security, there may be room for industry growth in the medium term. The driving force for the electrical equipment sector is shifting from domestic policy to overseas exports, and the export chain's prosperity is continuously improving. Third, non-ferrous metals: non-ferrous metals benefit from the weakening trend of the US dollar, but the strongest elasticity is concentrated in minor metal varieties related to the AI industry chain, rather than traditional cyclical metals.
④ Soochow Securities: Mid-year report clues mainly in three areas
Soochow Securities stated that with the reduction of macro disturbances, A-shares will return to boom pricing. From an external environment, the US-Iran conflict is close to reaching a settlement, and geopolitical risk premiums continue to fall; at the same time, the Fed's quarterly FOMC meeting has been concluded, and monetary policy uncertainty has significantly decreased, reducing macro disturbances. For A-shares, July will enter the intensive disclosure window for mid-year performance forecasts, and boom will be the core pricing factor.
Soochow Securities believes that the 2026 mid-year report clues are mainly concentrated in three areas: the AI hardware industry chain, upstream cyclical products, and midstream manufacturing with export advantages. From the performance of analysts' consensus expectations, since the disclosure of the first quarter report of 2026, industries where the 2026 forecast net profit has been revised upward include electronics, petroleum and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, etc.; industries with high forecast net profit growth in 2026 include commercial retail, power equipment, national defense and military industry.
