By Shahed Ali Irshad
Food security will depend on agricultural allocation
Questions remain about government data on production
Every year, subsidies and budget allocations in the agricultural sector are increased. But the stories of farmers' losses seem to never end. Although production costs have increased, farmers in the field are still in financial crisis due to not getting fair prices for agricultural products. Meanwhile, the ongoing geopolitical tension in the Middle East has created new instability in the international market for fertilizer and fuel. As a result, in the new fiscal year, the country's food security will largely depend on maintaining adequate allocation and subsidies in the agricultural sector.
Over the past decade, Bangladesh has highlighted its success in achieving food self-sufficiency and food security, but the condition of the farmers, the primary producers of that food, has not changed much. The experience of farmer Humayun from Rajbari makes this reality clear. He said that it cost him about 16,500 Taka to cultivate Boro paddy on one bigha of land. Adding irrigation costs, the expense increases by about another 5,000 Taka. But with the current market price of paddy, the production cost is not even recovered.
Farmers complain that although the government sets the procurement price for paddy and rice, in most cases the benefit does not reach the farmers directly. The market profit goes to intermediaries and businessmen. As a result, farmers' incomes do not increase; rather, the risk and cost of production continue to rise.
To reduce production costs, the government has been providing subsidies in the agricultural sector for a long time. In the current fiscal year, an allocation of 17,500 crore Taka has been made for agricultural subsidies. In the 2024-25 fiscal year, this allocation was 17,000 crore Taka. Earlier, in the 2023-24 fiscal year, the subsidy amount was 25,644 crore Taka.
However, according to experts, merely increasing subsidies is not enough; their effective use and ensuring that benefits reach farmers directly must be ensured. Economist and researcher Selim Jahan said, "There is no effective mechanism to ensure that the price set by the government reaches the farmers. When farmers sell their products, any additional value added in the market does not return to the farmers."
The biggest concern this time is the Middle East crisis. Bangladesh's agricultural production is largely dependent on imported fertilizer and fuel. The raw materials for urea fertilizer production, natural gas, and various types of chemical fertilizers mainly come from the Middle East. If the conflict there prolongs, the price of fertilizer in the international market may increase further.
Already, the international price of urea fertilizer has risen from $480-500 per ton to nearly $700 per ton. The country's annual demand for fertilizer is about 70 lakh tons, of which the demand for urea is 26 lakh tons. Of this, about 16 lakh tons have to be imported. In addition, other fertilizers such as TSP, DAP, and MOP are also largely import-dependent.
According to government estimates, currently, a subsidy of 21 Taka per kg is given on urea, 23 Taka on TSP, 50 Taka on DAP, and 40 Taka on MOP. If international prices continue to rise, the government's subsidy burden will also increase significantly. Therefore, experts believe that it is essential to reflect this reality in the agricultural budget.
According to Selim Jahan, if subsidies on agricultural inputs are reduced, farmers' production costs will increase further. This will not only reduce farmers' incomes but also harm overall food production. In the long run, that could put the country's food security at risk.
There are also questions about government data on food production. In the 2024-25 fiscal year, rice production was shown as 4 crore 43 lakh tons. On the other hand, total demand for food and commercial use was about 3 crore 60 lakh tons. According to that, the country should have a significant surplus. But at the same time, a large amount of rice was imported. This contradiction between production and import has been seen for several years.
The international situation is also not encouraging. According to forecasts by various global organizations, global rice production could decline by up to 20 percent due to climate change, war, and supply chain disruptions. In such a situation, it may become difficult for Bangladesh to procure necessary food grains from the international market.
According to analysts, allocation and subsidies in the agricultural sector are not just about supporting farmers; it is one of the main tools for protecting the country's food security. In the context of the Middle East crisis, global inflation, and uncertainty in the food market, if adequate investment and effective support in the agricultural sector are not ensured, maintaining food security in the future could become a major challenge. Therefore, the future of Bangladesh's food security will largely depend on how the allocation, subsidy, and production support for the agricultural sector are restructured in this year's budget.
