The world is turning toward nuclear power as a solution to the increasingly dire energy trilemma – the tricky issue of sourcing energy that is simultaneously affordable, sustainable, and secure. As the artificial intelligence boom pushes energy demand into the stratosphere in rich nations, and back-to-back oil shocks and soaring temperatures leave poor nations scrambling for alternative energy sources, the nuclear option is looking increasingly appealing for a broad range of national contexts.
"With energy security now ranking alongside climate commitments as a top policy priority, nuclear power appears positioned to play a central role in the global electricity landscape through mid-century," the Foreign Policy Journal reported last month. This includes planned nuclear expansion in strong nuclear sectors like the United States and Canada, as well as in smaller economies that are trying out nuclear for the first time.
Historically, nuclear energy has been dominated by wealthier nations, as nuclear power plants are notoriously expensive to develop and nuclear waste additionally requires strong governance and lots of money to manage. As a result, just five economically powerful nations – the United States, France, China, Russia, and South Korea – account for more than 70 percent of global nuclear energy output.
But that trend is rapidly changing. Most of the 80 nuclear reactors currently under construction in the world are in emerging economies, marking a sea change in nuclear development. India and Pakistan have each kickstarted nuclear power sectors in recent years, and more emerging economies are soon to follow. Even tiny nations like Singapore are now considering the technology as its benefits are highlighted by global energy market volatility.
"For these countries, nuclear helps to decarbonize their grids while avoiding an over-reliance on intermittent power sources such as solar and wind," Bloomberg wrote in a recent report. "It's also a way of cutting dependence on imports of fossil fuels that are vulnerable to external shocks — notably Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the Iran war."
However, while this approach is helping countries to wean themselves off of their dependence on fossil fuel imports, the development of nuclear power in emerging economies is still largely being funded by external actors. China and Russia have been facing off in the African nuclear energy sector for years now, each vying to establish dominance and influence in the burgeoning sector. And Bangladesh, the next emerging economy slated to become nuclear-capable, is doing so thanks to a Russian-built nuclear energy plant.
When the Rooppur plant is completed in 2028, the facility will supply as much as 15 percent of Bangladesh's electricity. The first of the plant's two reactors is expected to be fully operational by 2027. However, even with the investment of a richer country, the power plant could prove to be problematically expensive for Bangladesh, especially since the Bangladeshi taka has plummeted in value since the project was initially greenlit a decade ago.
"Under the main contract with Russian state-owned company Rosatom, the plant will cost around $12.65 billion, including the first few years' fuel," reports Bloomberg, based on figures from the World Nuclear Association.
While the operators of the facility maintain that the plant is a worthwhile investment, and will ultimately be more cost-effective than alternatives thanks to the low long-term operational costs of nuclear plants, Bangladeshi officials say that they won't opt for another large-scale nuclear project after Rooppur is up and running. Instead, the energy minister has indicated that Bangladesh will focus on small modular reactors, which promise smaller price tags and shorter timelines than traditional nuclear power plants.
Bangladesh may prove to be a cautionary tale for other emerging economies considering adopting nuclear energy – or, alternatively, it could be a promising proof-of-concept.
"Whether Bangladesh can move past these setbacks and begin reaping the rewards of cheap, clean electricity will be of great interest to the next wave of potential nuclear adopters," reports Bloomberg. "They will be watching closely next month when Rooppur's first reactor is set to be connected to the grid."
