Can DJT Take the Wall Street Crown from Bill Clinton?
It’s a busy Summer with World Cup, America’s 250th birthday, and the prediction markets are in full swing on the outcome of the November mid-term elections.
As the only 5-star ranked Morningstar® money manager living in Las Vegas, I’ll take a shot at being an “odds maker” of President Trump overtaking Former President Clinton’s record for best performing stock market over two terms in recent history.
What History Tells Us?
The table below shows stock market returns broken down by elected terms for the last four two-term presidents.
Stock Market Returns by Term
Ken Winans
Simply put, the post-Cold War years of the Clinton administration stand out with only a few stock market hiccups, while the other Presidents had a financial crisis of some type. Reagan had high inflation & 1987 stock & bond market crash. GW Bush & Obama had wars, tech stock wrecks & The Great Recession. Trump had COVID pandemic, current trade disputes & Iran.
What Will It Take?
For President Trump to overtake Former President Clinton here’s what has to happen by 12/31/2028:
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The S&P 500 Index needs to be at 11,173 (DJIA equivalent to 80,898) with average annual performance of 22% over this term.
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To advance pass President’s Reagan & Obama, the S&P 500 Index needs to be at 9,291 (DJIA equivalent to 67,274) with average annual performance of 14% over this term.
Winans’ Presidential Stock Predictions:
- If DJT can slightly exceed the average annual return of 20.1% of his first term (similar to what happened to Clinton & Obama), he is within striking distance of taking the top podium (an over bet).
- Unless he has a series of disasters like GW Bush, President Trump has a strong probability of taking the number two spot.
The gusty winds of political change can have an effect on stock investing, but the well-followed controversies of past administrations didn’t matter to Wall Street!
Ultimately, investors (regardless of political views) want to see their investments appreciate in value. Let’s hope new records are set!
