Copper Tariff Critical Moment Approaching! AI Computing Metals Face New Changes
As June 30 approaches, global AI computing metals are facing new changes.
At that time, the US Section 232 tariff investigation will be released. Expectations of new tariffs on copper have already impacted global markets. If implemented, financial institutions like Goldman Sachs predict that US buyers will trigger a new wave of stockpiling. Currently, US COMEX inventory has risen to over 650,000 tons, a historical high. Meanwhile, tin, tantalum, and indium, which are deeply tied to the AI computing industry, may also see further price increase signals.
The global market is entering a period of supply shortage for computing metals such as copper and tin. The market expects that real demand from the AI downstream market remains strong, and prices are likely to remain relatively high in the foreseeable future.
Countdown to US Copper Tariff Decision
In July last year, the Trump administration announced a copper tariff plan, ultimately imposing a 50% tariff only on copper semi-finished products and copper-intensive derivatives. Refined copper was unexpectedly exempted, but a phased tariff on refined copper was proposed starting from 2027. The final decision on this resolution is due at the end of June this year. The US Department of Commerce must submit an updated assessment report by June 30 and then make a final decision on whether to implement the ladder tariff plan for refined copper.
Copper is a computing metal and the largest and core variety in computing infrastructure. Over the past year, US traders have engaged in arbitrage in advance, continuously moving LME copper inventory and global copper to US COMEX warehouses. COMEX copper inventory has surged from about 80,000 tons in February 2025 to currently over 650,000 tons, a historical high. The persistent premium of COMEX over LME essentially bets on the implementation of the refined copper tariff on June 30 this year.
According to data from the London Metal Exchange (LME), LME copper inventory continued to decline last week, with the latest inventory level at 352,100 tons, a nearly three-month low. Meanwhile, COMEX copper inventory continued to increase last week, reaching a new historical high of 652,200 tons. Industry insiders believe that if the US tariff is implemented as planned, US copper prices may further soar, while non-US regions may face deeper shortages due to supply outflow.
Expectations of new tariffs have already impacted global markets. In a report earlier this month, Goldman Sachs stated that if the proposed tariffs in Washington take effect, copper prices could surge to over $14,000 per ton in the second half of 2026, triggering a new wave of stockpiling by US buyers.
AI Upstream Materials Still in High Boom
Besides copper, tin, tantalum, and indium are deeply tied to the AI computing industry. Multiple market statistics show that tin prices have risen from about 300,000 RMB per ton last November to about 400,000 RMB per ton currently, a cumulative increase of 40% in half a year; tantalum ingot prices have surged 158% from the end of last year; indium prices have risen about 60% from the beginning of the year to mid-June.
With the explosion in demand for "computing metals," the demand logic for related metals has shifted from traditional industrial cycles to long-term structural growth, leading to a revaluation of the industry chain. Recently, concepts such as tin, germanium, and other minor metals and base metals have continued to strengthen, with individual stocks like Chihong Zinc and Germanium and Yunnan Germanium hitting new highs. In the ETF sector, the Rare Metals ETF Huaxia (159053), which tracks the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index, has the highest rare metal content at 58.74% in the market, and its fund shares increased by over 70 million units in a week, achieving significant growth.
Zhang Qiyao's team at Industrial Securities believes that since April this year, besides the continuous consensus on AI computing hardware, price increases of AI upstream materials have also been an important clue in the capital market. With the arrival of hot summer weather and the "golden September and silver October" economic peak season approaching, July to October will usher in the second price increase window of the year, and subsequent macro-level price increase clues are also expected to further enrich.
It is worth noting that supply-side rigid constraints are further strengthening. Domestic environmental protection production restrictions and mining quotas are simultaneously contracting. Moreover, the "Regulations on the Implementation of the Mineral Resources Law," which came into effect on June 15, further confirms the legal status of 36 strategic mineral resources such as rare earths and lithium, strengthening the full-chain management and heavier punishment mechanisms for violations. The upgrade in policy control further reinforces market expectations for the revaluation of strategic metals.
As AI upstream materials are included in national-level strategic mineral resource catalogs by various countries, combined with the clear certainty of AI industry chain spending, upstream materials remain in high boom. Entering the second half of the year, Du Meng, Investment Director of Morgan Asset Management, stated at the Navigator Institutional Strategy Meeting that this year the market will mainly be priced around industry prosperity, and AI remains the "greatest common divisor" in the global technology industry. In the second half, the priority is still to seize AI.
(Source: Securities China)
