Economic Strength or Resilience?
The President recently presented 12 indicators to argue that the Mexican economy is going through a moment of strength. However, economic resilience is not the same as structural strength. It is worth reviewing each indicator in its true context.
1. Record foreign direct investment
Mexico attracted $23.591 billion in foreign direct investment during the first quarter of 2026: a historic figure. However, most of these resources are reinvestment of profits from companies already operating in the country. In contrast, gross fixed investment has been deteriorating for more than a year. In a strong economy, both variables would advance simultaneously.
2. Unemployment at barely 2.5%
Mexico has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the world, but it is not quality employment. More than half is in informality or under temporary contracts without legal benefits.
3. Controlled inflation, falling interest rates, and a strong peso
Macroeconomic stability is a valuable asset, but it is not synonymous with growth. Inflation remains above Banxico's target. Moreover, a strong peso does not mean a strong economy — it partly stems from factors such as the global weakness of the dollar — and it puts pressure on exporters, tourism, and remittance recipients.
4. Stable fuel prices
When oil is trading high, lower gasoline prices benefit households and businesses. However, their artificial cheapening may imply fiscal costs or implicit subsidies that taxpayers end up paying.
5. Lower deficit and higher tax collection
After the sharp deterioration in 2024, it was essential to regain some balance in public finances. However, this consolidation has been less than promised by the government and relies more on cuts to public investment. This occurs while less productive items increase, so the result may be counterproductive and that worries rating agencies.
6. Public debt at 50.3% of GDP
Compared to other countries, Mexico's debt is moderate. However, the figure can be misleading if we consider that Mexico collects only about 17% of GDP in taxes, while the Latin American average is 22%. Moreover, low growth makes it difficult to stabilize the debt.
7. Record exports and a positive trade balance
Integration with North America remains one of the country's greatest economic strengths. On this point, I agree with the president. But export performance coexists with all the weaknesses I have mentioned.
8. Increase in the minimum wage and reduction of labor poverty
This is one of the most important advances and it is indeed a strength, but it does not mean that conditions of economic vulnerability have been resolved.
9. Lower financial debt of Pemex
I believe this is the point farthest from economic strength. In fact, it is quite the opposite. Pemex cannot stand alone: it continues to depend on fiscal support from the federal government, which itself has weakened financially. Pemex is one of the main risks to national public finances, according to rating agencies.
10. New legislation to accelerate public and mixed investment
Investments do not arrive just because a new law exists. They also require legal certainty, public security, availability of energy at competitive prices, adequate infrastructure, sufficient water, talent, and trust in institutions.
11. Creation of a National Investment Office
The main obstacles to investment are not bureaucracy, but distrust that the state will resolve what actually affects investments: extortion, regulatory uncertainty, institutional weakness, energy limitations, and availability of specialized talent.
12. Welfare Programs
Social transfers help improve the income of millions of households and have helped reduce some shortcomings. However, no economy has sustained its social development exclusively through transfers. Lasting well-being also requires formal employment and access to at least quality health services and education.
What is missing?
Economic resilience is a virtue. To turn it into prosperity, it is necessary to give solid foundation, not only narrative, to confidence in Mexico's future. That confidence rests on quality institutions that respond to the economic challenges I have discussed here.
Director of México Evalúa.
