- Disagreements between the US and Iran, rising oil prices, and high inflation expectations are among the factors negatively affecting gold prices. Additionally, the number of job openings in the US came in higher than expected, increasing expectations that the Fed may focus more on inflation.
- For long-term investors, a "phased buying" recommendation is made, while the critical support level for spot gold is stated to be $4,420. Gram gold is trading at 6,590 lira, and quarter gold is sold at 10,860 lira.
Global gold prices continue to trade near the $4,500 level; prolonged uncertainties in the Middle East, the dollar index maintaining its strength above 99, strong signals from the US economy, high bond yields, and the short-term disappearance of expectations for a Fed rate cut continue to pressure the yellow metal.
Ounce Falls Below $4,500
During yesterday's trading, the ounce price tested a high of $4,541 but could not hold its gains. Under the influence of selling pressure, the ounce fell back below $4,500 and closed at $4,488. In today's trading, as of 06:00 Turkish Time, the ounce is priced at $4,477. The gram gold price for June 3, 2026, traded on the spot market, starts the day at 6,615 TL.
US-Iran Uncertainty
Looking at the latest developments affecting gold prices, the failure to reach an agreement between the US and Iran for days has increased uncertainty. Risks to oil prices are also rising. While the Brent crude oil price hovers in the $96-97 band, high energy prices keep high inflation and high interest rate pressure alive, emerging as the most important reason restraining the yellow metal.
Expectation That the Fed May Focus More on Inflation
Meanwhile, the US labor market, a critical indicator for the Fed in terms of interest rate policy, is being closely monitored. The number of job openings in the country was 7.62 million in April, compared to expectations of 6.87 million. This data, coming in higher than forecasts, points to a strengthening labor market and supports expectations that the Fed may focus more on inflation.
Eyes on Friday's Data
Attention is focused on the US non-farm payroll data for May, to be announced on Friday. It is reported that if the employment data comes in higher than expectations, it could reduce Fed expectations and become an additional pressure factor on gold prices. The 200-day moving average, considered a critical support for the ounce, is approaching $4,420 as of today.
"Phased Buying" Warning
Doç. Dr. Filiz Eryılmaz, Chief Economist at Pusula Yatırım, reiterated the "phased buying" warning for long-term investors, stating that the $4,400-4,440 band is a suitable region for the first phase. Doç. Dr. Filiz Eryılmaz warned that if the ounce price drops below $4,400 and shows signs of persistence below this support, selling could accelerate.
Current Gold Prices
Gram gold, after starting the day with a decline, is trading at 6,590 lira.
Yesterday, gram gold gained value in parallel with the rise in spot gold, ending the day at 6,629 lira, up 0.2% from the previous close.
Gram gold, starting the day with a decline, is at 6,590 lira as of 09:35, down 0.6% from the previous close. At the same time, quarter gold is sold at 10,860 lira, and Republic gold at 43,240 lira.
Spot gold is trading at $4,457, down 0.7%.
The re-escalation of conflicts in the Middle East has stalled US-Iran talks and caused oil prices to rise, triggering inflationary pressures. This situation leads to a downward trend in gold prices due to concerns that borrowing costs will remain high for a longer period.
Pricing that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates also puts pressure on gold prices.
In the US, the number of JOLTS job openings increased by 731,000 in April compared to the previous month, reaching 7,618,000, its highest level since May 2024. This data strengthened expectations that the Fed's next move will be to raise interest rates.
On the monetary policy front, statements from Fed officials are being monitored. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that due to uncertainties regarding the economic outlook, it is reasonable to keep interest rates unchanged for now, but that action may have to be taken soon in the face of high inflation.
Analysts noted that today, domestic weekly money and banking statistics, and abroad, global services and composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), US ADP private sector employment, and the Fed's Beige Book report, among others, will be followed as part of a busy data agenda.
