Energy and agricultural commodity prices weaken together, MXV-Index falls nearly 2%
Selling pressure returned to the global raw materials commodity market in the final trading week of July, pulling the MXV-Index down nearly 2% to 2,755 points. The energy and agricultural groups faced the biggest pressure as expectations of easing Middle East tensions sent oil prices tumbling, while favorable weather prospects in the U.S. caused the oilseed complex to weaken across the board.
Expectations of easing Middle East tensions drag oil prices down sharply
The crude oil market had a very volatile week, but the dominant trend remained downward as investors increasingly bet on the possibility that the Middle East conflict will not continue to escalate.
Early in the week, oil prices came under pressure after U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said President Donald Trump had paused attacks to allow more time for diplomatic solutions. Trump later asserted that exchanges with Iran were going "well" and that progress on an agreement between the two sides could come soon.
Not only from the U.S., numerous diplomatic signals also emerged over the week. China continued to push for the resumption of peace talks between Washington and Tehran. Iran declared it would end military activities if the U.S. stopped its attacks. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman maintained discussions on mechanisms for managing maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, strengthening expectations that the vital shipping artery of the oil market could soon be reopened.
These signals quickly affected market sentiment. After four days of an unofficial "ceasefire" between the U.S. and Iran, oil prices fell to their lowest level in nearly two weeks after the July 28 session, while also correcting sharply after a prolonged period of overbought trading.
However, the market remains not fully assured about supply. According to Kpler vessel tracking data, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz improved from July 26 but fell sharply on the last two days of the month, down to only about 3-4 ships per day. Meanwhile, data from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) also show transits through the area continuously below 10 ships per day since July 21. This indicates shipping activity has not truly returned to normal.
Supply concerns immediately returned in the July 29 session as the U.S. and Iran continued new military moves. Oil prices reacted strongly, rising about 6.5-8% in a single session. By the end of the week, Tehran's continued blockade measures in the Strait of Hormuz also pushed oil prices slightly higher, reflecting the market's cautious sentiment amid lingering supply disruption risks.
Still, these recoveries were not enough to reverse the weekly trend. According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), at the close of the final session of the month, WTI oil fell about 5.2% to below $84.7/barrel, while Brent fell nearly 6.9% to $90.1/barrel.
Developments on the world market also directly affected domestic retail prices. In the July 30 adjustment period, the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Finance raised prices of most petroleum products. Diesel rose the most, adding 7.2% to 27,624 VND/liter. The bio-gasoline products E5 and E10 also rose 6.6-7.2%, to 22,388 VND/liter and 22,859 VND/liter respectively.
According to the regulatory agencies, the main cause was that world market prices of finished petroleum products rose about 5% during the latest adjustment period. At the same time, the Price Stabilization Fund continued to be used at VND 500/liter for bio-gasoline, VND 1,000/liter for diesel, and VND 500/kg for mazut.
Favorable U.S. weather puts pressure on the oilseed complex
Contrary to developments in the first half of July, the oilseed complex closed the last week of the month with a fairly sharp correction. For the week, soybean prices fell nearly 5.3% to $436.3/ton; soybean meal lost 4.18% to $354/ton; while soybean oil fell the most, down 7.1% to $1,475/ton.
According to MXV, the biggest cause was a change in expectations for the U.S. crop. The latest weather forecasts show the western Corn Belt and Soybean Belt region will receive fairly abundant rainfall over the next few weeks, while temperatures across the entire Midwest remain cool in early August.
This is when soybean plants enter pod-setting and seed-filling stages—the period with the greatest influence on full-season yields. As weather conditions turn positive, concerns about drought and heat stress quickly cool, triggering a wave of profit-taking on futures markets.
Selling pressure increased further as speculative funds still held fairly large long positions. Although significantly down from the record about 502,000 contracts early in the year, funds still hold about 320,000 net long contracts in the oilseed complex. This means if U.S. weather continues to be favorable, the market still has room for further technical selling.
For soybean oil, pressure also came from the energy market. Lower crude oil prices weakened the economics of blending biofuels, directly affecting demand for soybean oil as feedstock for renewable diesel production. Although U.S. renewable diesel production hit a record high in May, lower product prices squeezed crush margins to about $93.15/ton, putting pressure on the entire value chain of the oilseed complex.
On demand, the market also began to show signs of slowdown from China after a period of very strong imports. In June, China imported a record 13.55 million tons of soybeans, helping crushers maintain utilization at 2.25-2.5 million tons per week. However, that also pushed commercial soybean oil inventories above 1.2 million tons, the highest in nearly three years.
To reduce inventory pressure, China's state grain reserve group Sinograin is expected to auction about 500,000 tons of soybeans this week. At the same time, new diplomatic developments between Washington and Beijing regarding restrictions on artificial intelligence (AI) technology also raised market concerns that agricultural products could again be among the sectors affected if trade tensions escalate once more.
Domestically, soybean meal supply in August is forecast to be fairly ample. In addition to more than 400,000 tons of imported soybeans for crushing, Vietnam is expected to import about 400,000 tons of finished soybean meal, bringing total supply to around 700,000 tons.
However, purchasing progress for August-September delivery cargoes remains quite slow, while delivery time is running short. This has led trading companies to hold prices, making the domestic soybean meal market more sensitive to fluctuations in world prices.
Although lower soybean futures prices helped ease raw-material import costs, trading firms and processing plants remain cautious in their buying sentiment. With exchange rates and ocean freight still volatile, most businesses still choose a hand-to-mouth buying strategy rather than signing large-volume contracts.
In the coming period, weather developments in the U.S. will remain the biggest factor influencing the oilseed complex trend. This will also be the basis for domestic enterprises to weigh purchasing plans for Q4/2026 delivery contracts.
According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV)
