Three to five tropical cyclones are expected to develop or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) from October 2026 to March 2027, the state weather bureau said.
In its latest climate outlook, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) provided the following monthly forecasts for tropical cyclones:
- October 2026: 1 or 2
- November 2026: 1 or 2
- December 2026: 1 or 2
- January 2027: 0 or 1
- February 2027: Slim chance
- March 2027: Slim chance
As of this report, the last tropical cyclone to enter PAR was Tropical Storm Queenie (international name: Surigae) on Sept. 24, 2026.
READ: EXPLAINER: Dry spell vs. drought — and how El Niño raises the risk
El Niño doesn’t mean zero rain
The forecast comes amid expectations of reduced rainfall from the latter half of 2026 through early 2027 due to El Niño.
As of October, Pagasa said a strong to very strong El Niño was present in the tropical Pacific.
The weather bureau expects the phenomenon to persist until the first half of 2027, potentially reaching its peak before the end of 2026.
The Philippines is expected to experience below-normal rainfall during El Niño. However, the weather phenomenon does not mean the complete absence of rain or tropical cyclones.
Engineer Al Quiblat, Pagasa Mactan chief, said that fewer tropical cyclones would tend to enter PAR during El Niño, although the possibility remained.
READ: ‘Very strong’ El Niño may tighten Cebu water, food supply, Pagasa warns
“It does not mean that when there is El Niño, there are no typhoons. There are, but fewer enter. When they enter, they are stronger,” Quiblat said in Cebuano during a news forum.
He said tropical cyclones during El Niño typically develop over the central and western Pacific, farther from the Philippines.
These weather systems have a higher chance of recurving, or changing direction, before entering PAR.
“But if they enter, they are strong. They have a chance to stay over the ocean, and that is where typhoons gain strength. So, if they travel a long distance and enter the PAR, they are strong,” Quiblat said.
Dryness levels
Despite the possibility of tropical cyclones, El Niño brings warmer-than-usual temperatures and below-normal rainfall, increasing the risk of dry spells, drought and water shortages.
READ: 19 Cebu areas face hotter conditions amid El Niño
Pagasa classifies a two-month period with rainfall 21 to 60 percent below normal as dry conditions.
A dry spell occurs when rainfall remains 21 to 60 percent below normal for three consecutive months, or drops more than 60 percent below normal for two consecutive months.
Drought occurs when rainfall is more than 60 percent below normal for three consecutive months, or 21 to 60 percent below normal for five consecutive months.
READ: TD stays outside PAR as easterlies bring rains over parts of PH
For the remainder of 2026, Pagasa forecast the following number of provinces under each dryness category:
October
- Dry conditions: 28 provinces
- Dry spells: 9 provinces
- Drought: 8 provinces
November
- Dry conditions: 7 provinces
- Dry spells: 35 provinces
- Drought: 8 provinces
December
- Dry conditions: 16 provinces
- Dry spells: 31 provinces
- Drought: 19 provinces
