Supplies of copper products and concentrate from Russia to China in the first four months of 2026 increased by 1.5 times year-on-year, to more than 500,000 tons. Analysts attribute the increase in shipments to the continued redirection of exports to Asian markets, growth in copper production in Russia, and an anomalous situation in China, where plants, due to a shortage of raw materials, pay copper miners extra for concentrate.
Exports of copper products and concentrate from Russia to China in January–April 2026 rose 1.5 times year-on-year to 529,800 tons. The value of shipments increased 1.6 times to $3.39 billion. This follows from data from the General Administration of Customs of China.
Supplies of Russian copper products and copper concentrate to China began to grow sharply in 2025, when export volumes almost doubled to 1.28 million tons (see chart). Dmitry Orekhov, managing director of rating agency NKR, explains the dynamics by the reorientation to the Asian direction, the abolition of export duties on cathode copper, the increase in concentrate production, and the attractiveness of the Chinese market in terms of price and liquidity. According to him, this shift looks like a sustainable trend for the coming years, as long as sanctions and high Chinese demand for copper remain, which could be affected by an economic slowdown and changes in Beijing's trade policy.
According to a review by the Metals Intelligence Center (MIC) and BigMint, in May China increased imports of refined copper by 4.4% to 446,600 tons, reducing imports of ore and concentrate by 1% to 2.36 million tons.
Analysts note that copper production in China remains near record highs due to stable demand from the energy sector and electric vehicles. At the same time, a shortage of raw materials persists, exacerbated by supply disruptions from major mining regions and growing competition among global smelters.
According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), cited in the analysts' review, the surplus of refined copper on the global market in March decreased to 30,000 tons — more than nine times compared to February — amid high consumption in China.
Analysts at Kept, in their June review, raised their copper price forecast for the second to fourth quarters of 2026 to $12,700–13,000 per ton, noting that experts expect quotes to rise to $15,000 per ton.
On June 15, the three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was worth $13,700 per ton. As noted by Kept, copper prices are supported by expectations of stable demand from renewable energy, power grids, and data centers, limited supply of sulfuric acid needed for leaching, reports of possible reductions in metal supplies from Peru, etc.
Nikanor Khalin, senior analyst in the metallurgical and mining sectors at Euler, expects copper production in Russia to grow by 10–15% year-on-year in 2026, mainly due to the Malmyzhsky Mining and Processing Plant reaching full capacity, noting that the growth in exports is in line with market expectations. Exports of concentrate may also be stimulated by negative TC/RC rates (treatment and refining charges for copper concentrate) in China: in effect, plants pay copper miners extra for concentrate amid a shortage of raw materials, says the analyst. According to Mr. Khalin, this is an anomalous situation.
Dmitry Orekhov notes that Russia is also accelerating supplies to China of other non-ferrous metals — aluminum and nickel — due to price discounts and high demand from Chinese industry and the battery sector. "The positions of Russian ores and concentrates of non-ferrous and precious metals may further strengthen, as China seeks to secure its raw material base for its own processing, and this is facilitated by a combination of price discounts and a willingness to increase imports," analysts say. According to the Chinese Customs Administration, in the first four months of 2026, shipments of aluminum, including unwrought, from Russia to China increased by 2.7% to 763,440 tons, while the value of exports rose by 24% to $2.31 billion.
Polina Trifonova
