Russian wheat exports in September are expected to total around 2 million tons, compared with 4.6 million tons a year earlier, according to analysts at SovEcon.
“If the September forecast materializes, Russia will export around 5.6 million tons of wheat in the first three months of the 2026/27 season, compared with 11.3 million tons in July-September last year, or roughly half as much,” the analysts said.
The low export pace is attributed to continued disruptions in the Azov-Black Sea basin. Shipments from Azov Sea ports came to a complete halt in mid-July, while operations at Black Sea ports have been severely disrupted since mid-August.
“Black Sea routes remain operational, but with limited capacity: Tuapse is shipping small volumes, NGT is operating slowly, while direct shipments from several berths in Novorossiysk have begun without the use of elevator facilities, mainly onto small vessels. Attacks on port infrastructure in the Black Sea continue, with no clear signs of de-escalation so far,” SovEcon said.
SovEcon also noted that some alternative routes are gradually increasing volumes, including Russian Baltic Sea ports and terminals in Latvia and Lithuania. However, these routes can handle no more than 0.5 million tons per month, less than 10% of the volumes typically handled through Russia's southern ports.
“Against this backdrop, we recently cut our forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2026/27 MY by 3.2 million tons to 41.4 million tons. We do not expect the situation in the Azov-Black Sea basin to normalize in the coming weeks, although shipments may partially recover later in the autumn,” the analysts added.
In their view, the extremely low pace of Russian exports, combined with weak exports from Ukraine, will support global grain prices while increasing pressure on Russia's domestic market.
