SpaceX, Orders Already Oversubscribed: Early Fundraising Close Ahead
June 12 approaches: valuation up to 2,000 billion if greenshoe option exercised.
The SpaceX IPO is already heavily oversubscribed even before the book-building closes. According to Bloomberg, the lead banks – a consortium of 23 institutions led by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan – will close the institutional order book on the evening of Wednesday, June 11, a few hours earlier than expected, and then start trading on the Nasdaq on June 12 under the ticker SPCX.
Supporting investor interest are its core businesses in space launches and Starlink – which in 2025 generated revenues of $11.4 billion (+49.8%) and operating profit of $4.4 billion – as well as its growing exposure to AI: SpaceX has signed agreements with Alphabet for payments of up to $920 million per month for services related to the Gemini ecosystem and with Anthropic. Up to 30% of the shares could be allocated to retail investors, an exceptionally high proportion for a deal of this size.
However, the fundamental analysis presents significant risks. In 2025, SpaceX recorded a net loss of $4.94 billion on revenues of $18.67 billion (+33%), with an operating loss of $2.59 billion. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, the net loss was $4.28 billion. The accumulated deficit as of March 31, 2026 stands at $41.3 billion. The prospectus explicitly warns: "We may not achieve or, if achieved, maintain profitability in the future."
Meanwhile, S&P Dow Jones Indices has confirmed that it will not waive the access requirements for the S&P 500, which require GAAP profitability: SpaceX is therefore excluded. On the governance front, after the IPO, Musk will hold approximately 82.4% of voting rights through Class B shares (10 votes each), with the ability to elect 51% of the board and cannot be removed against his will. 'Enthusiasm must always be accompanied by discipline,' commented Professor Stefano Mengoli of the University of Bologna.
SpaceX presents itself as 'the only company building the integrated hardware and software infrastructure of the future in the sectors of space, connectivity, and artificial intelligence.' Since 2023, it launches over 80% of the world's mass into orbit each year with a success rate above 99%. Starlink serves millions of customers in 164 countries with about 9,600 satellites. The acquisition of xAI in 2026 adds the Grok model and a rapidly expanding AI computing infrastructure, with the goal of extending it to space. The Starship program absorbs substantial R&D investments ($3 billion in 2025) to revolutionize launches in terms of reusability and payload capacity.
SpaceX is placing 555.6 million shares at a fixed price of $135 each – an almost unprecedented choice for an IPO of this size, which typically announces a range – for a raising of $75 billion and a market capitalization of approximately $1.770 trillion. If the consortium fully exercises the greenshoe option on an additional 83.3 million shares within 30 days, the raising would increase to $86.2 billion and the valuation to $2.000 trillion, surpassing Saudi Aramco ($29.4 billion in 2019) and Alibaba ($22 billion in 2014) as the largest IPO in history.
(Photo: SpaceX on Unsplash)
