Ukraine turns the tables: Drones replace US aid – and shake Putin's calculations
Kyiv's expanded drone capabilities have compensated for the decline in US military aid. The next six months could decide the war.
The optimistic assessment of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that his troops would "hold more positions and inflict more damage" than Russia points to a shift in the course of the war. Previously, the dominant concern was that reduced US support for Kyiv could give Vladimir Putin an advantage.
Zelenskyy's boast on May 19 about dynamic changes in Kyiv's favor would have been difficult to predict at the beginning of this year. At that time, US-led peace talks stalled, the Trump administration reduced support, and a winter of relentless Russian attacks hit Ukraine's energy supply and critical infrastructure.
Analysts see a shift in war dynamics
But the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has compensated for the decline in American aid. Successful drone strikes behind front lines and deeper inside Russia give Kyiv reason for optimism and shift the balance of power. This at least partially counters a key fear of recent months.
"The overall dynamics of the war are gradually shifting in Ukraine's favor compared to recent months," said Giorgi Revishvili, military expert and founder of the Substack Russia Analyzed, to Newsweek. "The situation for Ukraine is significantly better than last year."
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry points to a significant increase in production of reconnaissance, medium-range, and deep-strike drone systems over the past year. This includes fiber-optic first-person-view (FPV) drones, which are considered particularly effective along parts of the front line.
"In the past six months, Ukraine has shown it has the initiative in drones," said Matthew Arnold, director of the "Democratic Resilience in a New Age of War" program at the LSE Ideas think tank of the London School of Economics. Ukraine will draw confidence from the fact that the withdrawal of large parts of US aid did not cause its war effort to collapse.
Kyiv intensifies strikes on logistics and supplies
Arnold told Newsweek that Ukraine is learning, adapting, and using drones faster and more successfully than Russia can. According to Revishvili, a notable recent development is that Kyiv has intensified its campaign of medium-range strikes against Russian logistics at an operational depth of 18 to 65 miles within occupied territories, such as in southeastern Ukraine.
At the same time, Ukrainian forces have expanded front-line operations to eliminate more Russian soldiers and extended their deep and medium-range strikes. The goal is to put pressure on the Russian economy and disrupt logistics in the operational rear, he added.
Creating a land corridor connecting occupied Crimea to Rostov in Russia was one of Moscow's goals, which Ukraine tried to prevent during its unsuccessful counteroffensive in 2023. "Now Ukrainian forces attack Russian supply lines there almost daily, and even pro-war Russian military bloggers are sounding the alarm," Revishvili said.
The next six months seen as "crucial"
General Andriy Biletsky, commander of Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps, told Reuters that if Kyiv maintains momentum for several months, territorial gains at the front could force Putin to give up the part of the Donetsk region that Russia does not occupy. Russian demands in US-backed peace talks include keeping the entire oblast, which Moscow claims to have annexed in the eastern Donbas region.
Kyiv has repeatedly stated this is unacceptable. Biletsky told Reuters that the Russian army is exhausted and unable to achieve major breakthroughs. The situation is complicated by Elon Musk cutting off Russian forces' access to his satellite-based internet service Starlink.
He said his troops hold the flank around Sloviansk, the northern bastion of the heavily fortified "fortress belt" in eastern Ukraine, forcing Moscow into a frontal assault on the city. This causes high losses among Russian soldiers and field commanders. Ukraine must identify directions "in which we can improve our positions, capture some strategic points," to give Kyiv leverage in talks.
Attrition of logistics as a lever against Russia
Biletsky emphasized that on the battlefield, the next six months are "the most crucial." Revishvili from Russia Analyzed said that if Ukraine can sustain and expand its campaign, it could create significant problems for Russian forces. Control of operational depth and steady attrition of logistics could significantly affect front-line operations and reduce Russia's ability to maintain offensive momentum and advance.
"That could also create gaps along the front that Ukraine might exploit," Revishvili said. "How far Ukraine can capitalize on such opportunities remains to be seen and will partly depend on whether it can address its ongoing personnel shortage."
Zelenskyy said this month that Ukraine has recaptured nearly 230 square miles of territory this year. In contrast, Russia's advances in Ukraine slowed to 40 square miles this year, compared to 625 square miles in the same period last year, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
Territorial gains and a new phase of war
The US-based think tank said Kyiv's forces are challenging the positional warfare character of the Russian war of aggression and may soon conduct limited mechanized attacks. According to ISW, Kyiv has overall regained a drone advantage, and success in containing Russian advances and reversing gains, combined with the reintroduction of some tactical mechanized maneuvers, "could mark the beginning of a new phase of the war."
Zelenskyy said Ukrainian "medium-range strikes" against Russian air defenses and military logistics up to 120 miles behind the front line have quadrupled since February. These have slowed Russian advances and hindered the transport of personnel and materiel to the front.
Attacks deep inside Russia put infrastructure under pressure
Ukrainian attacks targeted Russian facilities far from the front, from export terminals on the Gulf of Finland to refineries inland. On the night of Thursday, Ukrainian forces attacked an oil facility in Volgograd, just a day after hitting the Tuapse oil refinery in Russia's southern Krasnodar region for the fifth time this spring.
A Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow on May 18 targeted Sheremetyevo Airport, the Moscow Oil Refinery, an oil pumping station, and two companies producing electronics for the Russian military. "In Russia, it has become much more noticeable that the war is shifting due to increased Russian vulnerability on its own soil," Arnold said.
The program director of the "Democratic Resilience in a New Age of War" program at LSE IDEAS said Ukraine is pursuing a very targeted strategy to undermine Putin's belief that he can wage war against Ukraine without high costs to Russia's economy or population. This shifts the perception of the war increasingly into Russia's hinterland.
Putin holds to demands despite reports of weaknesses
Despite reports of declining Russian performance on the battlefield, Putin still believes his forces can capture the entire Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, which together form the Donbas region, by autumn, according to the Financial Times. The newspaper cited unnamed sources who spoke with the Russian president.
Putin also repeated his demand this month that Ukrainian troops surrender, said they were on the verge of collapse, and signaled he is not in a mood to give in. This may be partially fueled by the Russian military command, which, according to ISW, likely presents Putin with exaggerated maps, giving him a false picture of the front.
Revishvili said some axes remain more difficult for Ukraine. Around Kostiantynivka, a city crucial for the defense of Donetsk Oblast, Russian forces are using small-group infiltration tactics while leveling the city with heavy bombardment to ultimately make it untenable for Ukrainian forces.
Battle for Donetsk also has political weight
"Russian troops are working to establish bridgeheads and expand their presence around the city before gradually advancing deeper into urban areas," Revishvili said. "The battle for Donetsk is not just a military matter – it also carries significant political weight," he said, "so Russia must experience not only military setbacks but also political ones." (This article was created in cooperation with newsweek.com)
