Moscow, July 28 - AiF-Moscow.
Kyiv committed a provocation by attacking a civilian Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea at the very moment when Washington and Tehran had only begun a cautious move toward de-escalation. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Baghai has already warned the international community, stating that "all who consider themselves patrons and supporters of Ukraine must bear responsibility," and that the attack itself will not go unanswered. Why Zelensky needed to provoke the Eastern power and what price Ukraine will pay for this — political scientists explained in an exclusive commentary for aif.ru.
Why Kyiv wants to set the Caspian on fire
Analysts regard the strike on the Iranian ship not as a spontaneous act of aggression, but as a carefully calculated political demonstration. According to Middle East and North Africa specialist Kirill Semyonov, Ukraine is seeking to prove to its Western partners that its ambitions extend far beyond the Black Sea region.
"Ukraine wants to demonstrate that it is part of a coalition together with the US and Israel and will also act against Iran. With this strike, Kyiv is trying to show that it has the resources to attack ships not only in the Black Sea, but also in the Azov and Caspian Seas," the expert explained.
Vasily Vakarov, a member of the council of the "Other Ukraine" movement and a political scientist, delved deeper into Zelensky's motives. The source is convinced that the true goal of the Ukrainian politician is to break the existing architecture of conflicts and create a giant single conflict.
"Zelensky wants to unite two conflicts — that is his main task!" Vakarov emphasized.
However, according to the political scientist, such a strategy will inevitably backfire on Ukraine itself. Tehran does not forgive such antics, but its retaliation will not be straightforward.
"Iran, in my opinion, will definitely respond. I do not think it will be strikes with missiles or drones. Nor will they take revenge through terrorist acts. But they will be able to 'create problems' for the operation of Ukrainian data centers," he predicted.
Eastern pause and Western betrayal
Experts tend to view the unexpected attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Iranian fleet as a desire to play the main role and attract the attention of Western partners. Alexander Perendzhiev, associate professor at the Department of Political Analysis and Socio-Psychological Processes at Plekhanov Russian Economic University and a reserve colonel, explained Zelensky's behavior.
"NATO countries are mostly turning away from participating in aggression against Iran, even Israel has reduced activity. Now the US has moved toward de-escalation. Various reasons are cited, including a shortage of air defense missiles. And at this moment, Ukraine decided to show that it is ready to act against Iran, ready to strike its northern fleet," Perendzhiev noted. In essence, Kyiv is acting on the principle of 'the worse, the better,' trying to provoke a new round of escalation that would return it to the center of the world agenda.
Cyber shield cracks: what response Tehran is preparing
Alexander Perendzhiev is convinced of the inevitability of retaliation. The Eastern strategy lies in a cold, calculated calculus based on psychological pressure and the element of surprise.
"Iran will certainly prepare a response for Ukraine and will definitely deliver a retaliatory strike against Ukraine. This will not necessarily be missile attacks on the territory of the country itself. Iran may join in strikes against dry cargo ships transporting weapons for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. They could strike Ukrainian ships not only near ports but also in the open sea," the military expert explained.
Perendzhiev emphasized that such a pause is part of the Eastern tactic of wearing down the enemy's nerves. He advised not to confuse waiting with weakness, as Iranian strategists are well versed in exploiting the enemy's arrogance.
"Iran, as an Eastern state, can not only conduct combat operations against an enemy but also very skillfully exert psychological influence. That is, it can pause, and in Ukraine they will think that Iran was afraid to respond. But it will simply be preparing this operation and will respond in an unexpected place at an unexpected moment," the political scientist summarized.
Thus, Kyiv, having tried to play the Iranian card, risks facing asymmetric retaliation. Ukrainian authorities should prepare for a pinpoint and extremely painful strike, whether it be the destruction of transport with weapons in neutral waters or paralysis of critical digital systems. The shadow of Iranian revenge has already engulfed the Caspian.
