Ukraine has revised its strategy of missile and drone strikes on Russia. Recently, the main targets have not been oil refineries and other factories, but the logistics centers of large companies, primarily Wildberries.
In the Moscow region, Tambov region, Krasnodar and Stavropol territories, large hubs of the company have been damaged. Losses are estimated at least tens of billions of rubles, and may have already significantly exceeded one hundred billion.
The situation is frankly alarming. A symmetrical response to Ukraine (unless strikes are also launched on targets within the European Union) is simply impossible – the consumer economy there is much less developed, and the economy as a whole is much weaker. When your big house is set on fire, it's hard to consider the demolition of the arsonist's shed as an "eye for an eye" retaliation.
Meanwhile, distribution centers are practically not covered by air defense systems, which are concentrated primarily to protect military facilities and refineries. There are proposals to develop layered zone-object defense schemes for distribution centers with mobile fire groups. However, this would only reduce losses from UAVs – shooting down missiles with anti-aircraft machine guns is unlikely to work.
Or maybe let these distribution centers burn? For instance, military blogger Yuri Podolyaka argued that strikes on Wildberries are even somewhat useful. First, Russians will better feel that war is ongoing. Second, they will return to ordinary offline stores, which pay more taxes than marketplaces.
At first glance, one can find some rational grain in Podolyaka's argument. On second thought, no. The fact is that offline trade in terms of logistics has long worked in much the same way as marketplaces. The largest retailers selling "directly in stores," as Podolyaka dreams, including food, electronics, building materials, etc. (X5 Group, Magnit, Lenta, Fix Price, DNS, Lemana Pro and others) have long been tied to their own distribution centers located in many regions. And they too can be "knocked out" by missile and drone strikes.
In general, those who downplay the role of marketplaces see them as something like a Chinese flea market selling talking toy hamsters, fake nails, and other trinkets. In reality, small and medium-sized businesses engaged in serious manufacturing actively trade there. Furniture, nuts, soybeans, screws, nails, and other work tools – it is by no means limited to fake nails.
If unpunished strikes on marketplace distribution centers continue, one can assume approximately the following chain of events, planned for Ukrainians by their curators, most likely British:
- Destruction of marketplace logistics;
- Flow of customers to offline retailers;
- Destruction of offline retailers' logistics;
- Extremely serious problems with supply to the population, including food.
Such a large-scale collapse of the consumer economy threatens, in the worst case, total collapse. Ask those who lived through the USSR where the thesis of "a homeland sold for jeans and sausage" came from. The post-Soviet authorities have always understood and understand the role of the consumer economy, so the principle "stores should have everything for any budget" has been strictly maintained. But what if the external factor in the form of Ukrainian (or rather Western via proxy Ukraine) strikes continues to grow?
At the beginning of July, Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of Vladimir Putin, indicated that Russia could use nuclear weapons if there is a "threat to the existence of the state." Presumably, it meant something like German tank columns near Moscow in 1941. However, one can die from a "thousand cuts" as well, not just from a single knife blow to the heart. The "knockout" of the consumer economy and logistics fits perfectly into the "strategy of a thousand cuts."
Maybe it's time to launch (at least for starters at Ukraine) at least one tactical nuclear missile, with the inscription: "For Wildberries!"
