U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated this week that oil exports from the Middle East have rebounded to 15 million barrels per day (bpd), even surpassing the pre-war average of 20 million bpd on Sunday. However, vessel-tracking services and commodity analysts are reportedly baffled by these figures, struggling to reconcile them with their observations of tanker loadings and regional traffic.
Ship-tracking data suggests that oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz are, at best, half the volume cited by Secretary Wright. Various tanker-monitoring data indicate a gap of between 3 million bpd and 5 million bpd in Middle Eastern oil exports, with most vessel-tracking companies estimating only about 9 million bpd leaving the region via all export channels so far this month, according to data compiled by Reuters columnist Clyde Russell.
Earlier this week, the U.S. energy secretary posted on X that oil flows from the Middle East had normalized, with Sunday's traffic alone exceeding pre-conflict averages. This claim appears to be unsupported by ship-tracking data.
Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, commented to CNN that it is "not possible to reconcile the disparity between what we see and what he is quoting." Kpler data indicated earlier this week that vessel traffic at the Strait of Hormuz continues to decline as hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal fade.
Secretary Wright later reiterated his claim, posting that "In coordination with the U.S. military, the U.S. Department of Energy maintains the best available data related to oil and oil products leaving the Arabian gulf." He added that "Many private businesses undercount the number of ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz due to ships moving covertly through the waterway."
The U.S. official did not disclose the methodology behind the compilation or analysis of this data. Private businesses tracking shipments estimate current oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz at a maximum of 5 million bpd, and total Middle Eastern regional flows at around 9 million bpd-10 million bpd.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) also stated this week in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) that traffic at Hormuz remains "severely constrained" and anticipates this situation to persist throughout August.
Reuters' Russell notes that the accuracy of the U.S. claim will become clearer in the next five to six weeks as exports leaving the Middle East begin to appear in import data from various countries.
There is a possibility that vessel-tracking services are underestimating current export volumes due to increased "dark mode" activity by tankers. Conversely, the U.S. Administration might be promoting a desired outcome of the conflict in Iran, given the recent deadlock in U.S.-Iran talks and conflicting claims over control of Hormuz.
Another potential motive for the U.S. Administration could be an attempt to influence oil prices downwards, especially with the approaching midterm elections and persistently high gasoline prices for Americans. The national average price of gasoline has remained above $4 per gallon this week.
AAA stated on Thursday that "While gasoline demand is down, crude oil prices are keeping pump prices higher than normal for this time of year." They added, "So far, this is the highest August on record when it comes to the national gasoline average."
Patrick de Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, noted on Thursday that Americans have never paid so much for gasoline this late in the year, with the national average price on August 13th being $4.06/gal, the highest on record for this date.
