Peace in Iran will be slow to digest for the economy and leaves a more expensive passage through Hormuz
Updated 16 JUN. 2026 - 02:24
Analysts point out that the agreement gives Iran greater control over the strait, which will take time to recover smooth traffic and will be subject to higher insurance premiums.
Markets applauded yesterday the peace agreement reached between the United States and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, passage point for a fifth of the world's crude oil. Analysts warn, however, that the positive effects on the global economy will take time to materialize and warn that the pact draws a structurally worse — and more costly — geoeconomic framework than the status quo prior to the Washington and Israel attacks on Tehran last February 28.
"The United States continues to win the battles. Iran has just won the war," says Bjorn Beam, director of technological analysis at Arcano Partners, a geopolitical analyst and former CIA officer. Although Donald Trump started the war demanding "unconditional surrender of Tehran," 100 days later he seals an agreement that "lifts the US naval blockade and grants Iran an exemption to export oil," notes the Arcano expert, who had already warned that a peace deal would take weeks to reactivate crude traffic through the Strait of Hormuz due to the backlog of ships in the passage, their need for refueling, the presence of mines, and the severe damage to regional infrastructure.
In response, shipping companies worldwide yesterday requested additional guarantees to resume their transit through Hormuz. "Due to the lack of details and a track record of overly optimistic promises, we believe the security situation for the shipping industry remains volatile and we still consider it very risky for ships to start transiting [the strait] at this point," the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO) stated yesterday, demanding "safe routes" and denouncing "the threat from mines."
"Even if the Strait of Hormuz opens in the coming days, it will still take time to normalize," warns Raymond Torres, director of economic analysis at Funcas (the foundation of savings banks), who points out that although the pact apparently does not include the setting of tolls, "the insurance for passage through the Strait of Hormuz will cost more." "Normalization will take some time," and traveling through the area "will undoubtedly be more expensive than it was before February."
"The preliminary agreement reduces the risk of a major energy shock — a more severe stagflation — but does not guarantee a definitive reopening of Hormuz," argues Raúl Viñas, analyst and geopolitical expert at AFI (International Financial Analysts), who considers that "the most likely scenario is a gradual, fragile, and incomplete normalization, with the flow of crude and gas-related products recovering in phases and possibly not returning soon to pre-conflict levels."
"The macro impact will be positive, albeit contained," summarizes Viñas, noting that "rather than giving a strong boost to growth, it avoids a severe deterioration in inflation, confidence, and energy costs." However, he clarifies, "the financial and energy relief has already largely occurred, but its transmission to inflation, business margins, and consumption will take several months and will depend on the reopening being consolidated."
In parallel, the Funcas analyst warns, pressure on oil costs in markets will persist over time because "strategic crude reserves are severely depleted." At the same time, he warns, "the phenomenon of reconstituting reserves will be even more pronounced in the case of gas because we were already starting from a tense situation even before the conflict began." Faster will be the reversal of "the tension in fertilizer prices, which has not been as acute as initially anticipated," thanks, among other factors, to increased supply from other countries of origin, such as Asia, which had been helping to mitigate the impact on the agri-food sector.
"Even with Hormuz open, the demand to rebuild strategic reserves — whose medium-term target will be higher than that prevailing before the war — will maintain some tension on crude prices," agrees Viñas from AFI.
Future uncertainty
Looking ahead, "the unpredictable factor is in Jerusalem. Benjamin Netanyahu was excluded from the negotiations," says the Arcano analyst, warning that "a single Israeli attack to which Tehran decides to respond would be enough to collapse the truce."
"Any new escalation could close the strait again and quickly reactivate pressure on crude and distillates," agree sources at AFI, where they warn that "the situation has worsened structurally" compared to the pre-war framework when "the closure of Hormuz was an extreme risk that markets barely considered." Now that risk is priced in and drives up costs, insurance, and energy.
