US Tariffs on Canadian Goods Lead to Significant Costs for American Consumers and Exporters

The cost, and who carries it

• American importers $6.2B in duty paid at the American border on Canadian goods, January to June 2026. Recorded by customs, shipment by shipment. See the count
• American households modelled $1,634 estimated added cost per household per year, from tariffs on all U.S. imports. Range $1,144–$1,634, depending on how much of the duty reaches the shelf. See the model
• American exporters $16.0B of what American exporters sell to Canada sits in headings Canada taxes today, 10.5% of the total. From 8 September it is $26.5B. See whose jobs

Canada’s energy supply is a fourth exposure, and a different kind. It is further down, under The nuclear option.

Until 8 September 13 days

Taxed today 313 nearly all steel and aluminum

Taxed from 8 Sept 893 580 of them new

Top rate 50% everything is 25% today

The list grows 2.9× on 8 September 2026. Food and clothing are on it for the first time.

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What you have already paid

Customs logs the duty on every shipment as it crosses. These are those logs, added up.

$6.2B in tariffs collected on Canadian goods between January and June 2026. Over the same months of 2024, before any of this, it was $211M.

29.1× more duty than the same months of 2024

$46.41 per American household over six months, collected at the border rather than the till

3.09% average rate charged, up from 0.10%

$5.9B more than 2024 in the same six months

Duty collected on Canadian goods, January to June each year

2022 $176M

2023 $177M

2024 $211M

2025 $3.6B

2026 $6.2B

2022: $176M, a rate of 0.08 percent. 2023: $177M, a rate of 0.08 percent. 2024: $211M, a rate of 0.10 percent. 2025: $3.6B, a rate of 1.80 percent. 2026: $6.2B, a rate of 3.09 percent.

Where the duty falls, and the rate actually charged

Goods
Aluminum and articles thereof
Vehicles other than railway rolling-stock; parts
Iron and steel
Machinery and mechanical appliances; boilers
Articles of iron or steel
Electrical machinery, equipment and electronics
Wood and articles of wood; charcoal
Furniture; bedding, mattresses and lighting
Aircraft, spacecraft and parts thereof
Optical, photographic and measuring instruments
Copper and articles thereof
Miscellaneous articles of base metal

Imported
$5.7B
$20.6B
$2.1B
$15.1B
$1.5B
$6.3B
$4.4B
$2.4B
$4.1B
$2.4B
$1.7B
$715M

Duty paid
$2.0B
$1.9B
$518M
$457M
$415M
$203M
$190M
$80M
$54M
$52M
$43M
$38M

Rate
35.0%
9.3%
25.0%
3.0%
27.3%
3.2%
4.3%
3.3%
1.3%
2.2%
2.5%
5.3%

CON_VAL_YR and CAL_DUT_YR — calendar year-to-date imports for consumption and the duty calculated on them, USD. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, timeseries/intltrade/imports; household count from U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 1-year 2024, table B11001 (132,737,146 households). This is duty collected at the border from U.S. importers. How much of it reaches a shelf price depends on pass-through, which this data does not measure. It is not a measured increase in what anyone paid at a till.

Modelled estimate — not measured duty

What tariffs cost your household

Everything above is money customs actually collected on Canadian goods. This number is a model instead, and it is broader. It covers tariffs on all U.S. imports since 2025: China, Mexico, the EU, Canada, everyone. And it rests on something no dataset measures, which is how much of a duty a business adds to the shelf price rather than absorbing. That assumption is sourced in Method, below, along with every other one behind it.

$1,634 estimated added cost per American household per year, from tariffs on all U.S. imports. Range $1,144–$1,634, depending on how much of the duty reaches the shelf. See Method, below.

$221.8B added to what Americans spend on imported goods, per year

6.6% of all U.S. import value, added since the 2024 baseline

$3.4T total U.S. imports this estimate is calculated against, trailing twelve months

135,760,000 U.S. households the total is divided across

Estimated added cost, by category of goods

Machinery, vehicles & electronics

$109.8B

Steel, aluminum & metal goods

$31.3B

Other consumer goods

$26.5B

Clothing & footwear

$17.9B

Materials & industrial inputs

$12.0B

Household & personal care

$12.0B

Food & agriculture

$10.8B

Drinks & tobacco

$1.7B

Machinery, vehicles & electronics: $109.8B, 49.5 percent of the total. Steel, aluminum & metal goods: $31.3B, 14.1 percent of the total. Other consumer goods: $26.5B, 11.9 percent of the total. Clothing & footwear: $17.9B, 8.1 percent of the total. Materials & industrial inputs: $12.0B, 5.4 percent of the total. Household & personal care: $12.0B, 5.4 percent of the total. Food & agriculture: $10.8B, 4.9 percent of the total. Drinks & tobacco: $1.7B, 0.8 percent of the total.

Estimated added cost per household, top 10 of 51 states. Coarser than the national figure, see Method

State
MI
KY
GA
CA
TX
NJ
TN
NV
RI
SC

Per household
$4,000
$3,015
$2,940
$2,804
$2,670
$2,447
$2,311
$2,191
$2,066
$1,995

Total
$16.4B
$5.6B
$12.2B
$38.4B
$30.1B
$8.7B
$6.7B
$2.7B
$917M
$4.3B

CON_VAL_YR / CAL_DUT_YR — imports for consumption and calculated duty, U.S. Census Bureau timeseries/intltrade/imports/hs, HS6, all countries. Pass-through assumed at 100%, sourced in Method below. National and category figures are HS6 x all-countries, using Census-reported calculated duty (a real, collected figure, not a modeled rate table). State figures apply the same HS2-level added rate to each state's own HS2 import mix, because Census does not publish calculated duty at the state level; state totals will not sum exactly to the national total and are not claimed to.

Your state

Choose a stateChoose a state…AlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareDistrict of ColumbiaFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaWashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyomingChoose an industry…and an industry (optional)Transportation EquipmentChemicalsMachinery, Except ElectricalComputer and Electronic ProductsPetroleum and Coal ProductsFood and Kindred ProductsPrimary Metal ManufacturingOil and GasElectrical Equipment, Appliances, and ComponentFabricated Metal Products, NESOIAgricultural ProductsPlastics and Rubber ProductsWaste and ScrapMiscellaneous Manufactured CommoditiesPaperOther Special Classification ProvisionsMinerals and OresNonmetallic Mineral ProductsWood ProductsUsed or Second-hand MerchandisePrinted Matter and Related Products, NESOILivestock and Livestock ProductsBeverages and Tobacco ProductsFurniture and FixturesTextiles and FabricsFish, Fresh, Chilled, or Frozen and Other Marine ProductsApparel and AccessoriesTextile Mill ProductsGoods Returned To Canada (exports Only); U.s. Goods Returned and Reimported Items (imports Only)Forestry Products, NESOILeather and Allied ProductsProducts Supporting Agriculture and Forestry

Pick a state to see what the tariffs and the energy trade mean there.

And Canada is taxing you back

Canada answered with tariffs of its own. The September schedule is already law. It adds products that were never taxed before, and doubles the rate on metals that already were.

580 American products taxed for the first time

271 American steel and aluminum lines going from 25% to 50%

404 lines at the new 50% rate

320 American food and farm lines. Today: none.

Whose jobs are on the line

Canada chose these products deliberately. $16.0B of American exports sit in headings it taxes today, 10.5% of everything the U.S. sells to Canada. The dark states are the ones that make them.

If you work inany industry — show what Canada taxesTransportation EquipmentChemicalsMachinery, Except ElectricalComputer and Electronic ProductsPetroleum and Coal ProductsFood and Kindred ProductsPrimary Metal ManufacturingOil and GasElectrical Equipment, Appliances, and ComponentFabricated Metal Products, NESOIAgricultural ProductsPlastics and Rubber ProductsWaste and ScrapMiscellaneous Manufactured CommoditiesPaperOther Special Classification ProvisionsMinerals and OresNonmetallic Mineral ProductsWood ProductsUsed or Second-hand MerchandisePrinted Matter and Related Products, NESOILivestock and Livestock ProductsBeverages and Tobacco ProductsFurniture and FixturesTextiles and FabricsFish, Fresh, Chilled, or Frozen and Other Marine ProductsApparel and AccessoriesTextile Mill ProductsGoods Returned To Canada (exports Only); U.s. Goods Returned and Reimported Items (imports Only)Forestry Products, NESOILeather and Allied ProductsProducts Supporting Agriculture and Forestry

U.S. exports to Canada in tariffed headings, in force todayWhat Canada taxesWhat it costs youDollarsShareTodayFrom 8 Sept

Most exposed states: MI $5.1B, MO $1.6B, IN $1.5B, OH $1.1B, KY $1.0B, IL $884M, AL $775M, TX $629M.

LessMore  darkest: $2.0B or more

ALL_VAL_YR — calendar year-to-date export value, USD. Canada's tariffs are set on 10-digit tariff items but the Census publishes 6-digit headings, so these are exports in headings that contain tariffed lines. Treat it as an upper bound rather than exports actually taxed. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, timeseries/intltrade/exports/statehs.

What Canada is taxing

What Canada taxes are American exports, the things American workers grow and build. Today the list is steel and almost nothing else. September's includes groceries.

Tariff lines by product categoryIn force todayFrom 8 September

Steel, aluminum & metal goods

294

332

Food & agriculture

0

320

Machinery, vehicles & electronics

19

106

Clothing & footwear

0

56

Materials & industrial inputs

0

42

Household & personal care

0

32

Steel, aluminum & metal goods: 294 lines today, 332 from 8 September. Food & agriculture: 0 lines today, 320 from 8 September. Machinery, vehicles & electronics: 19 lines today, 106 from 8 September. Clothing & footwear: 0 lines today, 56 from 8 September. Materials & industrial inputs: 0 lines today, 42 from 8 September. Household & personal care: 0 lines today, 32 from 8 September. Other consumer goods: 0 lines today, 5 from 8 September.

The rates

Every line Canada taxes today is 25%. September adds a 50% tier and puts 271 American steel and aluminum lines in it.

Tariff lines by rate, from September 8

15%

21

25%

468

50%

404

15 percent: 21 lines. 25 percent: 468 lines. 50 percent: 404 lines.

The nuclear option

Canada has not done this, and nothing here predicts it will. But tariffs are the smaller lever. Flip the switch to see which states buy their energy from Canada, and whether they have anywhere else to buy it.

Show what Canada supplies

Crude cost per gallon

$0123456789.01234567890123456789

what the U.S. pays Canada

Both figures are prices the United States actually paid this year: $67.17 a barrel to Canada, $77.92 a barrel to everyone else, across 704 million Canadian barrels. Careful with the gap, though. It is not a pump price, since refining, distribution, tax and margin all sit on top of the crude. Nor is it really a discount: Canadian barrels are mostly heavy crude, and heavy crude sells below lighter grades wherever it goes, so a lot of the difference is just the grade. What replacing one with the other would cost is a question this page does not have the data to answer.

$63.8B of energy the United States bought from Canada in six months

Canada's share of every barrel, cubic foot and kilowatt-hour the U.S. imports

Electricity

100% · $1.3B

Natural gas and petroleum gases

94% · $7.4B

Crude oil

61% · $47.3B

Refined petroleum

30% · $7.8B

Every dollar of electricity the United States imported came from Canada. Not almost all of it. The two figures are the same down to the dollar.

Electricity: Canada supplies 100 percent of U.S. imports. Natural gas and petroleum gases: Canada supplies 94 percent of U.S. imports. Crude oil: Canada supplies 61 percent of U.S. imports. Refined petroleum: Canada supplies 30 percent of U.S. imports.

Share of each state's imported energy that comes from Canada

Share of imported energy sourced from Canada. Most dependent: OK 100 percent, MT 100 percent, ND 100 percent, SD 100 percent, VT 100 percent, WY 100 percent, MN 100 percent, OR 100 percent, IL 100 percent, CO 100 percent. Least dependent: DE 10 percent, HI 9 percent, LA 8 percent, MD 7 percent, MS 3 percent.

Share from Canadaunder 25% → 100%

The median state buys 94% of its imported energy from Canada. 11 states buy 100% of it there. The 12 below half (CT, GA, FL, TX, AL, NJ) are coastal, and a coast can take a tanker from anywhere. The interior is stuck with the pipeline.

GEN_VAL_YR — calendar year-to-date general import value, USD. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, timeseries/intltrade/imports. These are volumes the U.S. buys today. They are not a forecast of what a cut-off would cost, which would need assumptions about substitution and price that this data cannot support. Worth noting that oil and gas can arrive by tanker from anywhere, while electricity has to come down a wire, and on most of those wires Canada is the only supplier at the far end.

Look it up

Every American product on Canada's list, all 1,206 of them. Filter it, or search for something specific.

ScheduleBothIn force todayFrom September 8CategoryAll categoriesClothing & footwearFood & agricultureHousehold & personal careMachinery, vehicles & electronicsMaterials & industrial inputsOther consumer goodsSteel, aluminum & metal goodsRateAny rate15%25%50%Search

All 1,206 lines

Tariff item
5703.39.10
5703.39.90
6104.43.00
6104.63.00
6109.10.00
6110.20.00
6110.30.00
6116.93.00
6201.40.10
6201.40.90
6202.40.00
6203.11.00
6203.31.00
6203.41.00
6204.43.00
6204.49.00
6210.20.10
6210.20.90
6210.40.10
6210.40.90
6210.50.10
6210.50.90
6211.32.00
6211.33.00
6211.43.10
6211.43.90
0402.10.10
0402.10.20
0402.21.11
0402.21.12
0402.21.21
0402.21.22
0402.91.10
0402.91.20
0402.99.10
0402.99.20
0404.10.10
0404.10.21
0404.10.22
0404.10.90
0404.90.10
0404.90.20
0409.00.00
1703.10.10
1703.10.90
1703.90.10
1703.90.90
1901.20.11
1901.20.12
1901.20.13
1901.20.14
1901.20.15
1901.20.19
1901.20.21
1901.20.22
1901.20.23
1901.20.24
1901.20.29
3303.00.00
3304.10.00

Product
Of other man-made textile materials: Other: Machine tuftedCarpets and other textile floor coverings
Of other man-made textile materials: Other: OtherCarpets and other textile floor coverings
Dresses: Of synthetic fibresApparel and clothing accessories, knitted or crocheted
Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts: Of synthetic fibresApparel and clothing accessories, knitted or crocheted
Of cottonApparel and clothing accessories, knitted or crocheted
Of cottonApparel and clothing accessories, knitted or crocheted
Of man-made fibresApparel and clothing accessories, knitted or crocheted
Other: Of synthetic fibresApparel and clothing accessories, knitted or crocheted
Of man-made fibres: Overcoats, raincoats, car-coats, capes, cloaks and similar articlesApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted
Of man-made fibres: OtherApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted
Of man-made fibresApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted
Suits: Of wool or fine animal hairApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted
Jackets and blazers: Of wool or fine animal hairApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted
Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts: Of wool or fine animal hairApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted
Dresses: Of synthetic fibresApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted
Dresses: Of other textile materialsApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted
Other garments, of the type described in heading 62,01: Protective suits, to be employed in a noxious atmosphereApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted
Other garments, of the type described in heading 62,01: OtherApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted
Other men's or boys' garments: Protective suits, to be employed in a noxious atmosphereApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted
Other men's or boys' garments: OtherApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted
Other women's or girls' garments: Protective suits, to be employed in a noxious atmosphereApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted
Other women's or girls' garments: OtherApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted
Other garments, men's or boys': Of cottonApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted
Other garments, men's or boys': Of man-made fibresApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted
Other garments, women's or girls': Of man-made fibres: SarisApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted
Other garments, women's or girls': Of man-made fibres: OtherApparel and clothing accessories, not knitted
In powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content, by weight, not exceeding 1,5%: Within access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey
In powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content, by weight, not exceeding 1,5%: Over access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey
In powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content, by weight, exceeding 1,5%: Not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter: Milk: Within access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey
In powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content, by weight, exceeding 1,5%: Not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter: Milk: Over access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey
In powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content, by weight, exceeding 1,5%: Not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter: Cream: Within access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey
In powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content, by weight, exceeding 1,5%: Not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter: Cream: Over access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey
Other: Not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter: Within access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey
Other: Not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter: Over access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey
Other: Other: Within access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey
Other: Other: Over access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey
Whey and modified whey, whether or not concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter: Whey protein concentrateDairy produce; eggs; honey
Whey and modified whey, whether or not concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter: Powdered whey: Within access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey
Whey and modified whey, whether or not concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter: Powdered whey: Over access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey
Whey and modified whey, whether or not concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter: OtherDairy produce; eggs; honey
Other: Within access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey
Other: Over access commitmentDairy produce; eggs; honey
Natural honey.Dairy produce; eggs; honey
Cane molasses: Powder with admixture other than colouring or anti-caking agentsSugars and sugar confectionery
Cane molasses: OtherSugars and sugar confectionery
Other: Powder with admixture other than colouring or anti-caking agentsSugars and sugar confectionery
Other: OtherSugars and sugar confectionery
Mixes and doughs for the preparation of bakers' wares of heading 19,05: In packages of a weight not exceeding 11,34 kg each: Containing more than 25% by weight of butterfat, not puPreparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; baked goods
Mixes and doughs for the preparation of bakers' wares of heading 19,05: In packages of a weight not exceeding 11,34 kg each: Containing more than 25% by weight of butterfat, not puPreparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; baked goods
Mixes and doughs for the preparation of bakers' wares of heading 19,05: In packages of a weight not exceeding 11,34 kg each: Other, containing 25% or more by weight of wheat, withiPreparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; baked goods
Mixes and doughs for the preparation of bakers' wares of heading 19,05: In packages of a weight not exceeding 11,34 kg each: Other, in packages of a weight not exceeding 454 g eachPreparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; baked goods
Mixes and doughs for the preparation of bakers' wares of heading 19,05: In packages of a weight not exceeding 11,34 kg each: Other, containing 25% or more by weight of wheat, over Preparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; baked goods
Mixes and doughs for the preparation of bakers' wares of heading 19,05: In packages of a weight not exceeding 11,34 kg each: OtherPreparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; baked goods
Mixes and doughs for the preparation of bakers' wares of heading 19,05: In bulk or in packages of a weight exceeding 11,34 kg each: Containing more than 25% by weight of butterfat,Preparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; baked goods
Mixes and doughs for the preparation of bakers' wares of heading 19,05: In bulk or in packages of a weight exceeding 11,34 kg each: Containing more than 25% by weight of butterfat,Preparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; baked goods
Mixes and doughs for the preparation of bakers' wares of heading 19,05: In bulk or in packages of a weight exceeding 11,34 kg each: Other, containing 25% or more by weight of wheatPreparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; baked goods
Mixes and doughs for the preparation of bakers' wares of heading 19,05: In bulk or in packages of a weight exceeding 11,34 kg each: Other, containing 25% or more by weight of wheatPreparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; baked goods
Mixes and doughs for the preparation of bakers' wares of heading 19,05: In bulk or in packages of a weight exceeding 11,34 kg each: OtherPreparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; baked goods
Perfumes and toilet waters.Essential oils; perfumery and cosmetics
Lip make-up preparationsEssential oils; perfumery and cosmetics

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Method

Every number on this page is measured, with one exception. Nothing here is a forecast or a projection. The exception is What tariffs cost your household, above, which needs an assumption no dataset can supply. It says so at the top of the section and carries a label wherever it appears. Elsewhere, when a question could only be answered by assuming something, we say so and leave the number out.

Six public datasets, all free, all citable:

• Duty actually collected on Canadian goods, and the value it was charged on — U.S. Census Bureau, timeseries/intltrade/imports (CAL_DUT_YR, CON_VAL_YR).
• U.S. exports to Canada by state and commodity — U.S. Census Bureau, exports/statehs.
• U.S. exports to Canada by state and industry — U.S. Census Bureau, exports/statenaics.
• U.S. energy imports from Canada by state — U.S. Census Bureau, imports/statehs, HS 2709/2710/2711/2716.
• Household count — U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 1-year 2024, table B11001.
• Canada's counter-tariff list — Department of Finance Canada, complete list of U.S. products subject to counter tariffs.

Two tariffs, two payers. Canada's counter-tariffs are paid by Canadian importers and show up in Canadian prices. What they hit on this side is American exporters, the people who make what is on the list. Washington's tariffs on Canadian goods are paid at the American border by American importers, and that is the duty counted in What you have already paid. Two different taxes with two different payers. Do not add them together.

What this page does not tell you, because the data cannot:

• How much of the duty on Canadian goods reaches a shelf price. That is pass-through, and it is a margin decision made firm by firm. The Canada figures above assume nothing about it. They are duty collected at the border. The one modelled number on this page does state a pass-through rate, but for tariffs on all U.S. imports rather than Canada's alone. See below.
• What a tariff will do to any future price, at the pump or anywhere else.
• How many jobs are at risk. Turning export dollars into a job count needs an attribution model we do not have.
• What share of any industry's exports is tariffed. The tariff list is classified by HS and the industry data by NAICS; joining them takes a concordance we do not have, and guessing one would manufacture a number.

Counting tariff lines tells you how wide the list is, not how much money is on it. One line can carry a billion dollars of trade or almost none. That is why the dollar figures come from trade data instead of from the list.

List last read August 25, 2026 at 6:08 PM. 1,206 lines parsed. Fingerprint 4fc320037526.

The one modelled number: what tariffs cost your household

The scope and the one assumption are described in the section itself. What follows is the full list, printed by the model's own code so this text cannot drift from what actually ran.

• Tariff rates come from actual collected duty, not a rate table. Effective tariff rate per HS6 code is CAL_DUT_YR / CON_VAL_YR — calculated duty actually assessed by CBP, divided by the value it was assessed on, both reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. This already reflects every Section 232, 301, and IEEPA-successor (Section 122) layer, every USMCA exemption, and every carve-out in force at the time, because it is what was actually collected — not a reconstruction of the underlying legal text. Source: Census Bureau, timeseries/intltrade/imports/hs (CAL_DUT_YR, CON_VAL_YR).
• Pre-escalation baseline: calendar year 2024. 2024. The last complete calendar year before the 2025-2026 tariff escalation began (fentanyl tariffs on China/Hong Kong started January 2025; on Canada and Mexico, February 2025). Netting against this year isolates the escalation's own contribution rather than restating the full pre-existing duty burden as if it were new.
• Consumer pass-through of the added duty. 100%. Assumes the full increase in collected duty ultimately reaches consumer prices, appropriate for an annualized/steady-state estimate rather than a month-one snapshot. Import-price (border) pass-through of the 2018-2019 and 2025-2026 U.S. tariffs is found to be near-complete and fast in the academic literature; retail pass-through is slower but converges close to complete within roughly 6-7 months. A low-end sensitivity (70%) is reported alongside the headline for the short-run/partial-absorption case. Source: Amiti, Redding, Weinstein (2019), 'The Impact of the 2018 Trade War on U.S. Prices and Welfare', Journal of Economic Perspectives; Cavallo, Gopinath, Neiman, Tang (2021), 'Tariff Pass-Through at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy', AEA Papers and Proceedings; Fajgelbaum, Goldberg, Kennedy, Khandelwal (2020), 'The Return to Protectionism', Quarterly Journal of Economics; Minton, Ray, Somale (2026), Federal Reserve working paper on consumer price pass-through timing of 2025-2026 tariffs.
• HS6 lines with negligible 2024 baseline value are excluded. $50,000. An HS6 code with under $50,000 of CY2024 imports for consumption is excluded from the incremental-rate calculation: a near-zero denominator turns ordinary reporting noise into an implausible rate swing. Excluded lines' current import value is reported as meta.excluded_ttm_value_usd rather than folded into the total in either direction.
• State breakdown is HS2, not HS6. Census does not publish calculated duty (CAL_DUT_*) at the state level, only nationally. State figures are built by applying the nationally-derived added rate at the HS2 chapter level to each state's own HS2-level import composition (state of destination). This is coarser than the HS6 granularity used for the national and category figures, and state totals will not sum exactly to the national total; the delta is reported in meta.
• Household counts. National: BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey, Table 1800 ('Number of consumer units'), calendar year 2024. State: Census American Community Survey 1-year estimates, table B11001 ('Households'). Source: BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey, Table 1800, 2024; Census ACS 1-year estimates, table B11001.
• Category breakdown's CEX spending reference is partial by design. The category breakdown reuses this repo's existing consumer-facing HS taxonomy (pipeline/hs_chapters.py GROUPS, the same one T1/T2 use). Only groups with a clean, defensible 1:1 match to a BLS CEX top-level spending category carry a 'share of what a household already spends on X' reference (Food, Clothing & footwear, Drinks & tobacco, Household & personal care). Groups like raw steel/aluminum and industrial inputs are producer inputs with no single household spending line — forcing a match there would be worse than reporting none, so cex_reference_annual_household_usd is null for those and callers must not treat null as zero.

What the model does not capture:

• Effective-rate deltas at the HS6 level conflate rate/policy changes with product-mix shifts within a heading between the baseline and current period; this is unavoidable at HS6 granularity without unit-quantity data, which most lines do not report.
• Does not model exporter price absorption (foreign sellers cutting prices to hold U.S. market share) separately from importer/retailer margin absorption — both are folded into the pass-through assumption as a single parameter.
• Does not model consumer substitution away from tariffed goods, which would lower the realized cost below this estimate for price-sensitive categories.
• A handful of HS6 codes can show a large negative added rate (effective rate fell since 2024) from exemptions or reclassification; these are left in the net total rather than floored, per the pass_through_rate assumption's framing as a true net.

Assumptions generated August 26, 2026 at 10:25 AM, by the same model run that produced the numbers above.