How many deaths have already been counted, how many are expected, the rescues underway under the rubble, those possible and those not, and then the technology on the way that has been lacking so far, the people unreachable by their families and the missing. These are just some of the aspects that become clear when there is enough time for the first reliable assessments. But alongside these, there is other information that can also be of great interest at much more distant latitudes. For example, the differences between the earthquake in Venezuela and those in Umbria, as well as the technology that saved several people in Venezuela, namely Google's alerts, how they work and why they are connected. But let's go in order.
The most significant earthquake in recent times is the 2016–2017 seismic sequence in central Italy, which also severely hit Umbria. The main shocks reached magnitudes between 5.0 and 6.5, with very serious effects on Norcia, Amatrice and the Apennine areas of Umbria and Marche. From a seismological point of view, the earthquakes of Umbria and those of recent Venezuela are at two very different energy levels.
The main Umbrian events of recent decades fall within the range between magnitude 4.0 and 6.5, typical of Apennine seismicity. These are earthquakes linked to shallow crustal faults, with hypocenters generally between 5 and 15 km deep. This type of seismicity produces strong but relatively "localized" shocks, although in 2016 the sequence was long and complex.
The case of Venezuela, however, involves two main events between magnitude 7.2 and 7.5, therefore about 10 times more energetic than an Mw 6.5 and over 30 times compared to a 5.5. The depth was very shallow (about 10–20 km), a characteristic that drastically increases destructiveness.
In practical terms: the recent "strong" earthquakes known in Umbria (5.5 – 6.5) can cause serious damage but generally concentrated in limited areas; the Venezuelan one of magnitude 7.5 generates a much higher energy release and a much wider destruction area, especially if shallow and near populated centers.
Another key element is building density and vulnerability: in Umbria, constructions have largely been upgraded after anti-seismic regulations following the 1980s and 1990s, while in contexts like Venezuela, the average structural vulnerability is higher, and this amplifies the effects of higher magnitude events.
Over 48 hours after the earthquake, the latest official toll reports 235 confirmed deaths and over 4,300 injured, but the number is expected to rise. About 200 people are identified as trapped in collapsed buildings, while it is much more difficult to quantify the missing: in addition to the official channels of the Red Cross and Civil Protection, online portals have been created, such as "Desaparecidos Terremoto Venezuela", which collect tens of thousands of reports of people with whom families have lost contact. However, this is an indicative figure because communication difficulties and blackouts make it impossible to distinguish with certainty who is actually missing.
The earthquake was caused by two strong shocks recorded less than a minute apart: the first of magnitude 7.2 and the second of magnitude 7.5, both with shallow hypocenters. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the second is the most powerful earthquake recorded in Venezuela since 1900.
The greatest damage is concentrated in the state of La Guaira, which is the area of the central airport of the capital Caracas, where dozens of buildings have collapsed and about 250 structures have been damaged or destroyed, including at least eight hospitals, the headquarters of the Venezuelan Red Cross and the French embassy. Interim President Delcy Rodríguez declared a national state of emergency, ordered the closure of schools and the Simón Bolívar international airport, suspended public transport in the capital and interrupted gas distribution to prevent explosions. Blackouts and water supply interruptions also persist in several areas.
On the international front, a vast mobilization is underway. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies has launched an operation that will last several months and has sent a first shipment of 17 tons of humanitarian aid, part of an overall mission of at least 40 tons. The United States has announced an assistance package of $150 million, with specialized search and rescue teams and the suspension of some sanctions to allow the Venezuelan government to use economic resources more quickly for the emergency. The United Nations and numerous countries are also participating in the relief efforts, including Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, Ecuador, Panama, France, Spain, Italy, Switzerland and Germany, while the World Central Kitchen organization has begun distributing meals to displaced people and Pope Leo XIV has arranged a donation of 100 thousand euros for immediate needs.
Meanwhile, numerous testimonies have been collected from people who say they saved themselves thanks to an alert on their phone. A premise is necessary: an earthquake cannot be predicted. The scientific community agrees on this: today there is no technology capable of saying in advance when, where and with what intensity a shock will occur. However, it is possible to warn people a few seconds before the most destructive waves arrive. This is what Android Earthquake Alerts (AEA) does, a system developed by Google together with seismologists from the University of California, Berkeley and other international research centers, including researchers Richard Allen and Marc Stogaitis. After years of experimentation, the results were published in 2025 in the scientific journal Science.
The system works based on technology already present in almost all Android smartphones: the accelerometer, the sensor that normally serves to rotate the screen or count steps. When the phone is still, for example on a table, this sensor can detect even the weak vibrations caused by the first waves of an earthquake. If many phones in the same area simultaneously register the same movement, the data is sent anonymously to Google's servers, which in a few moments verify whether it is indeed a seismic event, estimate its epicenter, magnitude and the areas that will be hit by the most intense waves, automatically sending an alert to the affected smartphones.
The system does not predict the earthquake: the shock is already underway. Instead, it exploits the fact that P waves, the first to propagate and the least destructive, travel at about 5-8 kilometers per second, while S waves, responsible for most of the damage, arrive shortly after. It is this time interval that allows the alarm to be sent.
The advance warning depends exclusively on the distance from the epicenter. At five kilometers there is practically no margin; at ten kilometers the warning can arrive with one to three seconds of advance; at twenty kilometers with three to eight seconds; at fifty kilometers with ten to twenty seconds; at one hundred kilometers with twenty to forty seconds; beyond two hundred kilometers you can also reach about a minute. In real earthquakes observed by Google, alerts have been recorded up to a minute in advance in the Philippines, while during the earthquake that hit Turkey in 2025, many people received the alert from a few seconds up to about twenty seconds before the arrival of the strongest waves.
Those very close to the epicenter, however, often receive no warning or receive it when the shock has already started. This is not a limitation of the software, but of physics: the earthquake propagates faster than the time needed to detect it, process the data and transmit the notification.
According to the study published in Science, in the first three years of operation the system detected an average of over 300 earthquakes per month, sent about 18 million notifications per month, is operational in 98 countries and reaches about 2.5 billion people. About 85% of surveyed users said the alert was useful.
Research continues to further improve the system. The main objectives are to make accelerometers more sensitive, better distinguish vibrations caused by traffic or road works, reduce false alarms, estimate magnitude even faster, and increasingly integrate smartphone data with that of traditional seismic networks and artificial intelligence. Google has already stated that it has significantly reduced the error in the initial magnitude estimate compared to the first versions. Some limitations remain: the system works less well in areas with few Android phones and, although rarely, can generate false alarms, as happened in Brazil in 2025, when the service was temporarily suspended to refine the algorithms.
Many wonder why the system is not yet available in Italy. The reason is not technological. Our country already has one of the most advanced seismic networks in the world, managed by the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), but an official alert system would have to be integrated with the INGV, the Department of Civil Protection, telephone operators and smartphone manufacturers, as well as being scientifically validated. A false alarm could cause panic. But a missed alert could be much worse.
Moreover, Google does not automatically activate the service everywhere. In countries that already have national systems, such as Japan, Mexico, Taiwan and the west coast of the United States, Android uses government networks. In other cases, the service is activated only where the necessary technical and regulatory conditions exist and a sufficient number of smartphones to guarantee reliable detection.
As for users, where the service is operational it is generally active by default on newer Android phones, although it can be deactivated from settings. In countries where the system is not yet available, the function may appear in settings but is not usable.
At the moment there is no official announcement about the arrival of the system in Italy nor a date for its activation. If it is adopted, it will likely happen through a collaboration between Google, INGV and Civil Protection. Even without being able to predict earthquakes, a few seconds of advance can indeed be enough to take cover, move away from a window, stop an elevator, slow down a train or safely interrupt particularly delicate activities.
