Yang Chengfa: Will gold continue to fall at the opening on June 21? Monday gold trend analysis
Gold:
Axel Merk, founder and CEO of Merk Investments, said that even if the Fed shifts its policy focus to fighting inflation and turns hawkish overall, gold investors do not need to judge that this policy shift will end the precious metal's long-term bull market. New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh clearly released hawkish signals of monetary policy tightening, but in Merk's view, the short-term market headwinds gold is currently experiencing will ultimately solidify the long-term development foundation of the gold market. On one hand, hawkish monetary policy can significantly reduce policy uncertainty in the market; on the other hand, it will guide investors to look beyond short-term interest rate fluctuations and refocus on the deteriorating U.S. fiscal fundamentals.
Looking at the current chart, the gold market has completely weakened, with a clear short-term bearish trend. Prices rebound weakly and fall under pressure. Multiple attempts to break through resistance levels have failed, highs are gradually lowering, and the weak structure is fully formed. Technical indicators are all turning bearish. MACD red bars are fading and green bars are increasing. KDJ has formed a dead cross at a high level and continues to decline. Moving averages at multiple timeframes suppress gold prices, and rebound volume continues to be scarce, showing a typical weak characteristic of falling with volume and rebounding with shrinking volume. Short-term bullish repair has completely ended, and the market has returned to bearish dominance. Subsequently, it is likely to continue volatile downward movement. The operation strategy remains focused on shorting on rallies.
For operation suggestions at the beginning of the week, continue to maintain a bearish view. For resistance, first focus on the 4180 level, and then pay attention to the 4220-4230 area. The former is the key for bears to retest lows or even break below 4100, while the latter belongs to the strong defense of bears in short-term volatile trends. In other words, below 4230, bears can complete the low or new low of next week in the short term, while below 4180, bears may still test new lows, but the time cycle will be longer. For support, focus on the previous low of 4025. It is expected that gold prices will likely approach or touch it next week, but whether it can directly break needs to be judged based on actual trends. Therefore, it is better to wait for a touch or a false break before participating in long positions.
In summary: It is suggested to go short near 4160, with a stop loss at 4180, targeting 4100-4085.
This article is contributed by Yang Chengfa. Due to network push delays, the above content is personal advice. Because of network publication timeliness, it is for reference only! Operate accordingly at your own risk! Reprint must indicate the source.
