Sudden Plunge! Big News from US and Iran: Oil Prices Plummet, Trump Issues Latest Order
There is new development in the Middle East situation!
On the morning of July 26, Beijing time, international crude oil dark market prices suddenly plunged. Among them, New York crude oil dark market prices fell nearly 4%, and Brent crude oil dark market prices also fell more than 3%.
In terms of news, US President Trump ordered the US military to suspend strikes against Iran on the 24th local time, ending the previous 13 consecutive days (nearly two weeks) of daily air strikes. Just hours before the suspension, an Omani delegation arrived in Iran for talks on restarting the Strait of Hormuz traffic arrangements. According to foreign media reports, negotiations have made progress, and Oman and Iran are expected to reach an agreement this weekend.
Market analysts pointed out that the decline in oil prices has eased inflation expectations, reducing concerns about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, providing a short-term respite window for global technology stocks. At the same time, the cooling of the Middle East situation weakens geopolitical risk aversion, and funds are expected to return from safe-haven assets such as gold and energy to growth sectors like technology. However, this is more of a short-term sentiment repair, and the medium-term direction of technology stocks still depends on the verification of returns on AI capital expenditure and the upcoming earnings season.
Crude Oil Dark Market Plunges
From the early morning of July 26th until now, crude oil dark market prices have plummeted sharply. As of press time, New York crude oil dark market and Brent crude oil dark market have fallen 3.86% and 3.13% respectively, with prices at $86.62/barrel and $89.56/barrel.
The change in the Middle East situation is the main reason for the oil price plunge. According to Xinhua News Agency citing the US Axios news website on the 25th, US President Trump ordered the US military not to launch strikes against Iran on the 24th, breaking the previous situation of 13 consecutive days of US air strikes against Iran.
The report, citing two sources, said that over the past two weeks, Trump approved the military's strike plans every afternoon, and these actions were usually executed within hours. But on the 24th, Trump did not approve similar plans; instead, he instructed the military not to strike. It is unclear whether this is a one-time measure.
The report said that Trump's move indicates on one hand that he is willing to create more space for diplomatic efforts, and on the other hand, it shows that he realizes that unless large-scale military operations are restarted, the current US air strikes can no longer achieve significant results. Sources say that the US military is still planning for possible large-scale combat operations, but Trump has not yet made a decision.
The report also said that a few hours before Trump ordered the suspension of strikes, an Omani delegation arrived in Iran for talks on restarting the Strait of Hormuz traffic arrangements. Two sources in the region said that negotiations have made progress, and Oman and Iran are expected to reach an agreement this weekend.
Trump told reporters at the White House on the afternoon of the 24th that the US and Iran are still in dialogue, and said that the Iranian side is 'serious this time.' He also threatened that the US could also continue military strikes against Iran, 'if necessary, it can be raised to a higher level. We are ready and can act at any time.'
According to CCTV News, Qatar announced on July 25 that it will fully resume maritime navigation activities for all types of ships starting July 26. Earlier, Qatar had advised its citizens to suspend all maritime activities on July 12.
The local maritime department stated in a statement that all crew members and operators must strictly comply with national maritime regulations. Before departure and during navigation, it is necessary to comprehensively inspect and equip safety and security equipment to ensure maritime navigation safety.
Multiple Middle Eastern Countries Seek Alternative Energy Channels
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital energy export artery for Gulf countries such as Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain. Due to the US-Iran conflict, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has been largely disrupted.
On Thursday (July 23), London Brent crude oil futures September contract price briefly broke through $100 per barrel due to an attack on a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea and further escalation of military conflict in the Middle East.
As the US and Iran conflict intensifies again, the two important international energy transport routes, the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have been affected, hindering energy exports from multiple Middle Eastern countries. There are reports that Middle Eastern countries are working on opening new energy channels to reduce their dependence on these two straits.
According to CCTV News citing US sources on the 24th, governments and energy companies in the Middle East are accelerating the construction of transport pipelines, ports, and corridors aimed at transporting energy and other goods bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia has announced the expansion of a pipeline connecting its eastern oil-producing region to the western port of Yanbu, in order to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and export crude oil via the Red Sea. However, sources indicate that with the Houthi blockade against Saudi Arabia, tankers carrying Saudi crude oil have only one route if they cannot leave the Red Sea south through the Houthi-controlled Bab el-Mandeb Strait: north through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean, which would significantly increase transport time and costs.
Another major crude oil exporter in the Middle East, the UAE, has the port of Fujairah south of the Strait of Hormuz, which currently exports 1.8 million barrels of crude oil per day to global markets. The UAE has announced a large-scale port expansion plan, expected to double its oil export capacity bypassing the Strait of Hormuz to 3.6 million barrels per day by the end of 2027. In addition, Kuwait is negotiating with neighboring countries to expand pipeline systems to bypass the Strait of Hormuz for its crude oil exports.
It is reported that another Middle Eastern oil-producing country, Iraq, is currently using a large fleet of trucks to transport oil to the Mediterranean port of Syria for export. Iraq also plans to build new crude oil pipelines and repair old ones to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
According to foreign media, Gulf officials, energy companies, and market analysts reveal that at least seven major oil pipeline projects are under construction, planning, or discussion, aiming to export crude oil to international markets via routes such as the Red Sea, the Suez Canal, and the Gulf of Oman.
Victoria Grabenwger, a senior researcher at data company Kpler, said that Gulf oil-producing countries' high dependence on the Strait of Hormuz 'is no longer a prudent long-term strategy.'
(Source: Securities Times China)
