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US Economy · Finance

US Interest Rate Hikes Unjustified Amidst Cooling Economy, Expert Argues

An economic analyst contends that recent US interest rate hikes are misguided, citing weakening employment and declining inflation data that suggest a market reset is imminent.

News AutomationCompiled 08:06 UTC · 1 min read
A graphic representing US economic data trends, including employment and inflation.
A graphic representing US economic data trends, including employment and inflation.
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Roger J Kerr sees an inevitable reset in US interest rates, a NZD that is turning positive, and he reviews the prospects for the Aussie dollar

Currencies / opinion

Roger J Kerr sees an inevitable reset in US interest rates, a NZD that is turning positive, and he reviews the prospects for the Aussie dollar

10th Aug 26, 8:00amby Roger J Kerr

Summary of key points: -

  • Major reset by US interest rate markets seems inevitable
  • Technical charts and economic fundamentals turn positive for the Kiwi dollar
  • Positives and negatives for the Australian dollar

Bets by the US interest rate markets and calls by several Fed members and the majority of economic/market commentators in the US over recent weeks have been that the Fed needs to increase interest rates because inflation is not coming down and the employment market remains “robust”. Judging by the latest economic evidence, both the markets and the commentators have got this completely wrong. If the interest rate markets and the commentators have got this right, the US dollar would be appreciating in value. It is not, the US dollar has depreciated on the weaker than expected GDP growth data two weeks ago and the much softer than expected Non-Farm Payrolls employment data released last Friday night. The US economy shed 23,000 jobs in the month of July, a much more negative outcome than the +80,000 estimated by prior consensus market forecasts. Unsurprisingly, previous months’ jobs increases in May and June were retrospectively revised downwards by very large amounts. The originally announced +172,000 figure for May was revised lower to just +63,000 and the originally announced +57,000 for June was revised lower to +20,000. The significant historical revisions make a mockery of the accuracy and trustworthiness of the data, and that is why new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh has a task force to review the key economic measures used by the Federal Reserve in respect to their timeliness and accuracy. We have highlighted this problem with the Non-Farm Payroll jobs data for some time now. The reality is that the labour market in the US has cooled dramatically over the last 18 months, as the first chart below confirms. There is no way the Fed will be convinced to tighten monetary policy with interest rate increases when employment is weakening and wage increases are trending downwards.

The decrease in Non-Farm Payroll jobs in July came as no surprise to us, the accompanying household survey of employment has been very weak for several months now and it typically leads the Non-Farm Payroll jobs survey of business firms. The second chart below from Westpac, annualises the six months jobs data for both measures, confirming the material drop in US employment.

US Non-Farm Payrolls – Monthly change over the last three years

Lower oil prices as the conflict in the Middle East bumps along to a compromised end, coupled with further evidence of all other prices in the US economy trending downwards (not upwards, as so many commentators erroneously pontificate about!) and the weaker than forecast employment data - all add up to a major reset coming in the US interest rate markets. When the two-year and 10-year US Treasury Bond yields reverse back down by the 0.60% they have increased by over the last six months, the US dollar should fall further out of favour. The interest rate markets will also price-out any expectations of future Fed rate hikes and that is also clearly negative for the US dollar.

The next signpost for the interest rate and FX markets will be the US CPI inflation numbers for the month of July being released on Wednesday August 12th. Headline inflation is forecast to be a flat 0.00% for the month, decreasing the annual headline rate of inflation from 3.50% to 3.40%. Core inflation for July is expected to increase by 0.20%, reducing the annual core rate from 2.60% to 2.50%. Inflation is trending downwards towards the Fed target of 2.00%. Yet again, it is difficult to see where the evidence is of increasing inflation risks are to justify Fed hikes that the markets have seemed so convinced about.

The dominant influence over the NZD/USD exchange rate is how the US dollar itself is moving against the major global currencies (as measured by the USD Dixy Currency Index). The USD Index has pulled back from a high of 101.40 on 28th July to 99.48 today. A full reversal of the 0.60% increase this year in the US two-year Treasury Bond yield from 3.60% to 4.20%, would stand to push the USD Dixy Index further lower to the key long-term support level at 97.00 (refer to the chart below that demonstrates the correlation between the USD Dixy Index and US interest rates). A return of the USD Dixy Index to 97.00 would propel the NZD/USD exchange rate higher by 1.50 cents to 0.6050 from the current 0.5900 spot rate.

Technical charts and economic fundamentals turn positive for the Kiwi dollar

It has been an up and down see-saw for the NZD/USD exchange rate over the last 18 months, oscillating between 0.5550 and 0.6100. The chart below records the NZD/USD moving averages against the spot rate. When the spot rate (blue line) moves sharply higher, climbing up through the 30-day moving average (green line) and 90-day moving average (red line), provided the conditions are ripe with a weaker USD trend, the Kiwi has made significant gains, in April 2025 and January 2026.

Today, we again have an appreciating NZD/USD spot rate, which has again recently reversed quickly out of a short-term plunge lower to 0.5630 and has now climbed up to 0.5900. We also have a weaker US dollar environment that suggest continuing NZD gains as the patterns repeat. The technical/chart related picture does look more positive for the Kiwi dollar with the lows over the last 18 months becoming higher each time, however the highs becoming lower at the 0.6100 and 0.6000 region. Continued NZD appreciation to above 0.6100 over coming weeks/months would certainly be a major break-out of the top side of the trading range that has held since late 2024.

The NZD/USD exchange rate currently at 0.5900 is also close to key chart/technical level of 0.5920, a break above that level could attract further Kiwi dollar buying. A movement above 0.5920 breaks out to the topside of the long-standing five-year downtrend line (refer to the chart below).

As well as the technical situation for the Kiwi dollar looking more positive, the underlying fundamentals for the New Zealand economy are also very much on the improve. Last week we included a chart that confirmed the rebound in business confidence and how that had diverged from the NZD/USD exchange rate movements, which for other reasons related to negative interest rate differentials, had been stuck in the 0.5550 to 0.6100 range.

The strong recovery in New Zealand’s GDP growth is now being more widely recognised. Higher export volumes and prices have been driving the growth for 18 months now. However, as the growth has not come from higher immigration and rising house prices, it has taken a long time for it to be understood and recognised. The RBNZ’s GDP growth Nowcast forecast model, that measures all the component parts of GDP, is currently estimating +0.20% growth for the June quarter and +0.90% for the September quarter.

The annual GDP growth rate in the chart below (blue line) is moving upwards again, following the “Own Activity” index (green line) from the monthly ANZ business confidence survey. When the own activity index has been above +4.00% in the past (2013 to 2018), GDP growth has lifted to well above +3.00% pa. There is no question that the NZ economy has come through the uncertainty of the energy crisis much better than most expected. Confidence has returned and the economy is expanding at a faster clip than comparable economies in 2026.

Positives and negatives for the Australian dollar

The Reserve Bank of Australia (“RBA”) meet this Tuesday to decide whether a further OCR interest rate increase is warranted on top of the three increases this year to 4.35%. Stronger employment data through June and July support the case for another hike as wage increases continue at higher levels (particularly in the public sector). On the other hand, the CPI inflation results for the June quarter was well below the RBA’s and the market’s forecasts, suggesting that the already tighter monetary conditions are doing their job and limiting price increases. On balance, we do not think the RBA will hike on Tuesday, citing a preference to wait and see the impact on the economy of the earlier interest rate increases. However, should the RBA choose a last hike to make sure they have cut off inflation, it would be a positive surprise for the AUD.

It would not necessarily be negative for the Australian dollar if the RBA held steady. Australian interest rates remain above those of the US and if the US dollar continues to weaken as US interest rates reverse back downwards, the AUD will be moving up alongside other major currencies.

Whilst a slowing economy on falling house prices and lower immigration would justify the RBA ending its monetary tightening cycle, it does not automatically mean the appreciation of the Aussie dollar has come to an end. The AUD/USD exchange rate, along with the Norwegian Krone, has been the best performing currency against the USD over the last five months of the Iran/US war and volatile oil prices.

The AI boom and the building of data centres globally has seen a massive increase in demand for copper. Copper prices have soared and that is good news for Australia as a copper exporter. It is also good news for the Australian dollar currency value. Australian currency forecasters are now adjusting their AUD/USD rate forecasts higher as they factor in the positive tail winds from copper prices and a weaker US dollar.

It does look like the “lucky country” will yet again be saved from a domestic economic recession by a buoyant resources sector. A return to more positive growth in the Asian economies post the Iran/US war is also a positive for the Australian economy and the AUD exchange rate.

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Jan 25, 20120.817
Jan 26, 20120.822
Jan 27, 20120.824
Jan 29, 20120.823
Jan 30, 20120.819
Jan 31, 20120.825
Feb 1, 20120.834
Feb 2, 20120.833
Feb 3, 20120.835
Feb 5, 20120.834
Feb 6, 20120.834
Feb 7, 20120.836
Feb 8, 20120.835
Feb 9, 20120.834
Feb 10, 20120.826
Feb 12, 20120.829
Feb 13, 20120.834
Feb 14, 20120.833
Feb 15, 20120.834
Feb 16, 20120.833
Feb 17, 20120.832
Feb 19, 20120.84
Feb 20, 20120.84
Feb 21, 20120.834
Feb 22, 20120.829
Feb 23, 20120.836
Feb 24, 20120.835
Feb 26, 20120.837
Feb 27, 20120.84
Feb 28, 20120.838
Feb 29, 20120.834
Mar 1, 20120.839
Mar 2, 20120.829
Mar 4, 20120.831
Mar 5, 20120.821
Mar 6, 20120.813
Mar 7, 20120.816
Mar 8, 20120.824
Mar 9, 20120.821
Mar 11, 20120.82
Mar 12, 20120.819
Mar 13, 20120.823
Mar 14, 20120.81
Mar 15, 20120.82
Mar 16, 20120.824
Mar 18, 20120.825
Mar 19, 20120.826
Mar 20, 20120.817
Mar 21, 20120.812
Mar 22, 20120.81
Mar 23, 20120.818
Mar 25, 20120.819
Mar 26, 20120.823
Mar 27, 20120.821
Mar 28, 20120.818
Mar 29, 20120.817
Mar 30, 20120.818
Apr 1, 20120.823
Apr 2, 20120.825
Apr 3, 20120.818
Apr 4, 20120.815
Apr 5, 20120.815
Apr 6, 20120.819
Apr 8, 20120.818
Apr 9, 20120.821
Apr 10, 20120.815
Apr 11, 20120.82
Apr 12, 20120.828
Apr 13, 20120.822
Apr 15, 20120.823
Apr 16, 20120.82
Apr 17, 20120.822
Apr 18, 20120.816
Apr 19, 20120.815
Apr 20, 20120.818
Apr 22, 20120.818
Apr 23, 20120.813
Apr 24, 20120.811
Apr 25, 20120.815
Apr 26, 20120.812
Apr 27, 20120.821
Apr 29, 20120.823
Apr 30, 20120.818
May 1, 20120.815
May 2, 20120.808
May 3, 20120.801
May 4, 20120.795
May 6, 20120.792
May 7, 20120.796
May 8, 20120.786
May 9, 20120.784
May 10, 20120.784
May 11, 20120.782
May 13, 20120.78
May 14, 20120.777
May 15, 20120.769
May 16, 20120.765
May 17, 20120.764
May 18, 20120.756
May 20, 20120.754
May 21, 20120.767
May 22, 20120.755
May 23, 20120.752
May 24, 20120.754
May 25, 20120.753
May 27, 20120.76
May 28, 20120.761
May 29, 20120.761
May 30, 20120.752
May 31, 20120.753
Jun 1, 20120.754
Jun 3, 20120.752
Jun 4, 20120.757
Jun 5, 20120.758
Jun 6, 20120.77
Jun 7, 20120.768
Jun 8, 20120.77
Jun 10, 20120.777
Jun 11, 20120.768
Jun 12, 20120.778
Jun 13, 20120.776
Jun 14, 20120.783
Jun 15, 20120.787
Jun 17, 20120.792
Jun 18, 20120.793
Jun 19, 20120.796
Jun 20, 20120.8
Jun 21, 20120.788
Jun 22, 20120.79
Jun 24, 20120.789
Jun 25, 20120.787
Jun 26, 20120.79
Jun 27, 20120.792
Jun 28, 20120.787
Jun 29, 20120.801
Jul 1, 20120.801
Jul 2, 20120.803
Jul 3, 20120.804
Jul 4, 20120.804
Jul 5, 20120.803
Jul 6, 20120.798
Jul 8, 20120.798
Jul 9, 20120.796
Jul 10, 20120.794
Jul 11, 20120.795
Jul 12, 20120.791
Jul 13, 20120.795
Jul 15, 20120.798
Jul 16, 20120.797
Jul 17, 20120.798
Jul 18, 20120.8
Jul 19, 20120.803
Jul 20, 20120.799
Jul 22, 20120.797
Jul 23, 20120.788
Jul 24, 20120.783
Jul 25, 20120.791
Jul 26, 20120.8
Jul 27, 20120.809
Jul 29, 20120.81
Jul 30, 20120.809
Jul 31, 20120.809
Aug 1, 20120.809
Aug 2, 20120.809
Aug 3, 20120.818
Aug 5, 20120.818
Aug 6, 20120.82
Aug 7, 20120.815
Aug 8, 20120.813
Aug 9, 20120.811
Aug 10, 20120.812
Aug 12, 20120.812
Aug 13, 20120.81
Aug 14, 20120.805
Aug 15, 20120.807
Aug 16, 20120.811
Aug 17, 20120.807
Aug 19, 20120.807
Aug 20, 20120.81
Aug 21, 20120.81
Aug 22, 20120.814
Aug 23, 20120.812
Aug 24, 20120.811
Aug 26, 20120.811
Aug 27, 20120.809
Aug 28, 20120.804
Aug 29, 20120.801
Aug 30, 20120.798
Aug 31, 20120.803
Sep 2, 20120.801
Sep 3, 20120.798
Sep 4, 20120.794
Sep 5, 20120.795
Sep 6, 20120.801
Sep 7, 20120.812
Sep 9, 20120.811
Sep 10, 20120.81
Sep 11, 20120.817
Sep 12, 20120.821
Sep 13, 20120.831
Sep 14, 20120.829
Sep 16, 20120.829
Sep 17, 20120.827
Sep 18, 20120.827
Sep 19, 20120.83
Sep 20, 20120.829
Sep 21, 20120.828
Sep 23, 20120.828
Sep 24, 20120.823
Sep 25, 20120.82
Sep 26, 20120.825
Sep 27, 20120.831
Sep 28, 20120.83
Sep 30, 20120.829
Oct 1, 20120.828
Oct 2, 20120.827
Oct 3, 20120.819
Oct 4, 20120.822
Oct 5, 20120.818
Oct 7, 20120.818
Oct 8, 20120.819
Oct 9, 20120.818
Oct 10, 20120.816
Oct 11, 20120.818
Oct 12, 20120.816
Oct 14, 20120.817
Oct 15, 20120.816
Oct 16, 20120.817
Oct 17, 20120.822
Oct 18, 20120.82
Oct 19, 20120.816
Oct 21, 20120.816
Oct 22, 20120.818
Oct 23, 20120.812
Oct 24, 20120.82
Oct 25, 20120.82
Oct 26, 20120.823
Oct 28, 20120.823
Oct 29, 20120.82
Oct 30, 20120.822
Oct 31, 20120.822
Nov 1, 20120.827
Nov 2, 20120.825
Nov 4, 20120.825
Nov 5, 20120.826
Nov 6, 20120.828
Nov 7, 20120.818
Nov 8, 20120.815
Nov 9, 20120.814
Nov 11, 20120.815
Nov 12, 20120.818
Nov 13, 20120.816
Nov 14, 20120.81
Nov 15, 20120.809
Nov 16, 20120.812
Nov 18, 20120.813
Nov 19, 20120.819
Nov 20, 20120.817
Nov 21, 20120.815
Nov 22, 20120.816
Nov 23, 20120.823
Nov 25, 20120.824
Nov 26, 20120.823
Nov 27, 20120.821
Nov 28, 20120.824
Nov 29, 20120.823
Nov 30, 20120.82
Dec 2, 20120.821
Dec 3, 20120.821
Dec 4, 20120.824
Dec 5, 20120.829
Dec 6, 20120.833
Dec 7, 20120.833
Dec 9, 20120.832
Dec 10, 20120.835
Dec 11, 20120.839
Dec 12, 20120.843
Dec 13, 20120.843
Dec 14, 20120.846
Dec 16, 20120.846
Dec 17, 20120.845
Dec 18, 20120.841
Dec 19, 20120.834
Dec 20, 20120.835
Dec 21, 20120.822
Dec 23, 20120.824
Dec 26, 20120.819
Dec 27, 20120.821
Dec 28, 20120.82
Dec 30, 20120.82
Jan 2, 20130.834
Jan 3, 20130.828
Jan 4, 20130.832
Jan 6, 20130.831
Jan 7, 20130.837
Jan 8, 20130.837
Jan 9, 20130.84
Jan 10, 20130.845
Jan 11, 20130.836
Jan 13, 20130.839
Jan 14, 20130.843
Jan 15, 20130.84
Jan 16, 20130.841
Jan 17, 20130.836
Jan 18, 20130.836
Jan 20, 20130.835
Jan 21, 20130.836
Jan 22, 20130.841
Jan 23, 20130.842
Jan 24, 20130.838
Jan 25, 20130.837
Jan 27, 20130.836
Jan 28, 20130.834
Jan 29, 20130.839
Jan 30, 20130.836
Jan 31, 20130.839
Feb 1, 20130.845
Feb 3, 20130.848
Feb 4, 20130.843
Feb 5, 20130.845
Feb 6, 20130.84
Feb 7, 20130.833
Feb 8, 20130.836
Feb 10, 20130.837
Feb 11, 20130.835
Feb 12, 20130.841
Feb 13, 20130.846
Feb 14, 20130.852
Feb 15, 20130.844
Feb 17, 20130.845
Feb 18, 20130.845
Feb 19, 20130.847
Feb 20, 20130.836
Feb 21, 20130.834
Feb 22, 20130.837
Feb 24, 20130.836
Feb 25, 20130.833
Feb 26, 20130.824
Feb 27, 20130.828
Feb 28, 20130.825
Mar 1, 20130.825
Mar 3, 20130.823
Mar 4, 20130.828
Mar 5, 20130.832
Mar 6, 20130.828
Mar 7, 20130.829
Mar 8, 20130.821
Mar 10, 20130.821
Mar 11, 20130.827
Mar 12, 20130.825
Mar 13, 20130.818
Mar 14, 20130.822
Mar 15, 20130.827
Mar 17, 20130.824
Mar 18, 20130.827
Mar 19, 20130.825
Mar 20, 20130.827
Mar 21, 20130.831
Mar 22, 20130.836
Mar 24, 20130.835
Mar 25, 20130.835
Mar 26, 20130.839
Mar 27, 20130.837
Mar 28, 20130.837
Mar 29, 20130.836
Mar 31, 20130.836
Apr 1, 20130.838
Apr 2, 20130.842
Apr 3, 20130.842
Apr 4, 20130.842
Apr 5, 20130.843
Apr 7, 20130.841
Apr 8, 20130.846
Apr 9, 20130.852
Apr 10, 20130.858
Apr 11, 20130.863
Apr 12, 20130.858
Apr 14, 20130.858
Apr 15, 20130.844
Apr 16, 20130.851
Apr 17, 20130.845
Apr 18, 20130.842
Apr 19, 20130.842
Apr 21, 20130.841
Apr 22, 20130.843
Apr 23, 20130.843
Apr 24, 20130.847
Apr 25, 20130.851
Apr 26, 20130.848
Apr 28, 20130.85
Apr 29, 20130.855
Apr 30, 20130.857
May 1, 20130.851
May 2, 20130.851
May 3, 20130.853
May 5, 20130.854
May 6, 20130.851
May 7, 20130.846
May 8, 20130.846
May 9, 20130.841
May 10, 20130.83
May 12, 20130.829
May 13, 20130.825
May 14, 20130.821
May 15, 20130.824
May 16, 20130.817
May 17, 20130.806
May 19, 20130.808
May 20, 20130.818
May 21, 20130.816
May 22, 20130.805
May 23, 20130.811
May 24, 20130.809
May 26, 20130.809
May 27, 20130.809
May 28, 20130.806
May 29, 20130.81
May 30, 20130.809
May 31, 20130.794
Jun 2, 20130.796
Jun 3, 20130.81
Jun 4, 20130.802
Jun 5, 20130.796
Jun 6, 20130.799
Jun 7, 20130.788
Jun 9, 20130.785
Jun 10, 20130.789
Jun 11, 20130.789
Jun 12, 20130.795
Jun 13, 20130.809
Jun 14, 20130.804
Jun 16, 20130.806
Jun 17, 20130.799
Jun 18, 20130.799
Jun 19, 20130.786
Jun 20, 20130.777
Jun 21, 20130.774
Jun 23, 20130.777
Jun 24, 20130.776
Jun 25, 20130.774
Jun 26, 20130.778
Jun 27, 20130.779
Jun 28, 20130.774
Jun 30, 20130.773
Jul 1, 20130.783
Jul 2, 20130.775
Jul 3, 20130.778
Jul 4, 20130.782
Jul 5, 20130.77
Jul 7, 20130.772
Jul 8, 20130.78
Jul 9, 20130.783
Jul 10, 20130.793
Jul 11, 20130.785
Jul 12, 20130.777
Jul 14

PAN's pipeline reviewed approximately 1 open sources for this article. No human editor reviewed this article before publication.

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