At the very beginning of the war, I wrote that its main result would be the reformatting of the current Russian Federation...
The vast majority of my readers at that time were quite skeptical about this, as it seemed to them, "wild" thought...
Well, of course, I did not insist...
And now a math problem for the 4th grade of middle school...
Given:
- The average total monthly production of gasoline and diesel fuel in Russia is, respectively, 2.5–2.7 million tons of gasoline (85 thousand per day) and 5.5–5.9 million tons of diesel fuel.
This already takes into account "force majeure" caused by the fall of various kinds of "UAV debris".
- The strategic grouping of Russian troops operating on the territory of Ukraine numbers approximately 718–721 thousand personnel and "consumes" approximately 300–630 thousand tons of various types of fuel per month (or 10–20 thousand tons per day), of which:
- 220-450 thousand tons – diesel fuel
- 60-150 thousand tons – aviation kerosene
- 10-30 thousand tons – automobile gasoline
- In the civilian sector, the minimum fuel requirement of the Russian Federation is:
- 3.3-3.5 million tons of gasoline per month (minimum per day – 110 thousand tons)
- 2-2.2 million tons of diesel fuel per month.
Thus, only for gasoline the situation looks as follows:
– Overall, at the moment the Russian Federation produces 85 thousand tons per day, of which up to 1000–1500 tons per day must be "supplied" to Russian troops in Ukraine
– At the same time, the need of ONLY the civilian sector is at least 110 thousand tons per day...
Yesterday, "debris of Ukrainian UAVs" struck the Omsk Refinery (according to preliminary data, the primary oil refining unit ELOU-AVT-11 was damaged, where at least 2 "large" fire sources were recorded, which effectively stops production at this refinery, at least until repair work is completed).
Gasoline production (all grades) at this enterprise was (before the strike) approximately 11–12% of the total production of automobile gasoline in the Russian Federation.
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Minsk's "inadequate" can supply (sell) up to 4–5 thousand tons of fuel (meaning, first of all, automobile gasoline) to the swamps. Of course, at "international market" prices
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Kazakhstan can transfer A ONE-TIME additional 50 thousand tons of gasoline (supposedly this will be arranged as humanitarian aid) during July–August...
This is according to reports from the resource "Moscow Times", although officially Kazakhstan insists that the Kremlin has not yet made an official request to them on this matter...
As for diesel fuel, it's even more interesting:
– Monthly production is 5.9 million tons (down from 7.5 million tons as a result of strikes on refineries)
– "Consumption" in the civilian sector is up to 2–2.2 million tons per month + 0.6 million for the Russian Armed Forces grouping on the territory of Ukraine
– Supposedly there is a certain surplus of diesel fuel, but in reality its deficit is ALREADY being felt, especially in the western part of the Russian Federation.
The fact is that in the western (European) part of the Russian Federation, diesel fuel producers have essentially been "knocked out". The main volume of diesel fuel in the Russian Federation is now produced in the Urals, Siberia, and the Far East. That is, it still needs to be BROUGHT to the main consumers. And at this time:
– Russian Railways, whose communications in the southern and western directions are literally clogged with military echelons, simply does not have time to deliver it...
– Accordingly, the main consumers of diesel fuel (especially in the southern and western regions of the Russian Federation) simply "physically" cannot buy it, as it is literally "stuck" on the railway
– Moreover, large Russian oil companies, in order to supply diesel to their own gas station networks, simply buy up echelons with diesel from each other, even while en route.
And because of this, small wholesalers ("independent" chains and farmers) get only a "drop" from that conditional surplus that tries to reach the European part of the Russian Federation...
As a result, the supposedly existing surplus of diesel fuel in the Russian Federation actually turns into a DEFICIT in the European part of the Russian Federation and overall is shrinking (compared to last year by 2.5 times) due to the "decommissioning" of a number of its producers in the European part of the Russian Federation by "falling high-precision debris of Ukrainian drones".
Question:
How close has the Russian Federation ALREADY come to the beginning of the reformatting period?
It is desirable to formulate the answer in thousands of tons of automobile gasoline and diesel fuel.
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